2013 Madometer settles to 21.2% after Louisville escapes Shockers

Posted on April 7, 2013 by ptiernan

2013_madometer_T2

We nearly saw the ultimate Shocker last night, with Wichita State up 12 late into the second half. But Louisville pulled out their semi-final game…then Michigan sweated out a victory over Syracuse.

That sets up a 1v4 title game. There have only been two other championship match-ups involving those seeds. In 1996, top seed Kentucky downed Syracuse. But the following year, Rick Pitino’s Wildcats were upset in overtime by fourth-seeded Arizona.

The Madometer has already broken the record of 19.8% madness set in 2011. It can go no lower than 20.8%. If Michigan pulls off the surprise, the crazy gauge will stay where it is–at 21.2%. Either way, this has been the most unpredictable dance of the modern tourney era.

Posted in Measuring Madness | Leave a comment

Model performance heading into the Final Four

Posted on April 6, 2013 by ptiernan

I meant to post this earlier. Here are the results of the various strategies used to fill out the brackets for the 2013 tourney. The numbers refer to where the models fall by percentile in the ESPN Tourney Challenge. Each model’s champion is in parentheses. Four of the 15 models like Louisville; none of them picked Syracuse, Michigan or Wichita State.

  • M11 Contrarian, 95.0% (Duke)
  • M5 Pulse Check, 91.3 (Louisville)
  • M12 Nate Silver, 87.3% (Louisville)
  • M13 Coach + Six, 87.3% (Indiana)
  • M1 Kenpom, 84.8 (Florida)
  • M2 F4Champ, 82.1 (Indiana)
  • M10 ESPN BPI, 82.1 (Louisville)
  • M14 Costanza, 82.1% (Duke)
  • M6 Factor PASE, 76.0 (Kansas)
  • M7 Baseline, 76.0 (Gonzaga)
  • M15 Keeper, 76.0% (Indiana)
  • M4 Eff+Coach, 71.2 (Florida)
  • M3 Outcome, 59.1 (Louisville)
  • M8 Seed Match-up, 54.9 (Indiana)
  • M9 Upset/Toss-up, 42.5 (Indiana)

Even though the Contrarian model is in the top 95th percentile, Pulse Check is in the best position to yield winning results. Nate Silver’s model also figures to do well, as does ESPN’s BPI.

Posted in General News | Leave a comment

2013 Madometer rises to 21.8% madness

Posted on April 1, 2013 by ptiernan

2013_madometer_F4

After the Wolverines’ trouncing of Florida and tourney favorite Louisville’s beatdown of Duke, the Madometer ticked up to 21.8% deviation from higher seed dominance. Even if Louisville wins the championship, this reading can go no lower than 20.8%. That makes this year that craziest dance by a full one percent, or six seed positions.

What’s the worst it can get? If Wichita State cuts down the nets, the Madometer will surge to 23.2% insanity. And the two additional upsets will bring the total to 13–tied for the most in the modern era with four other dances.

Posted in Measuring Madness | 16 Comments

The homer in me: “Go Hickory–er, Blue!”

Posted on March 31, 2013 by ptiernan

treymie-burkewood

Posted in General News | 3 Comments

It’s official: Craziest…dance…EVER!

Posted on March 31, 2013 by ptiernan

Wichita State’s upset of Ohio State has cemented the 2013 tourney as the maddest dance in the 64-team tourney era, dating back to 1985. Heading into today’s last two Elite Eight games, the Madometer deviates from perfect high seed dominance by 22.2%. No matter what happens from here on in, the lowest the Madometer can go is 20.5%. That beats the 19.8% unpredictability of the 2011 tourney, the previous leader for the mantle of maddest dance. All told, the 2013 tourney will be at least four seed positions further away from perfect sanity…and it could still go higher.

As far as the upset tally, we’re now at 11. To tie for the record of 13 upsets, Wichita State must cut down the nets. I wouldn’t bet on that. Then again, I wouldn’t have bet on the Shockers beating the Buckeyes.

Posted in Measuring Madness | 2 Comments

Model performance heading into Elite Eight

Posted on March 30, 2013 by ptiernan

If you take a quick scan of the percentiles below, it looks like the stats models are performing pretty well this year. But the Elite Eight results will start to create separation among the 15 models. The biggest bracket killer was the Indiana loss. Five of the 15 models liked the Hoosiers to cut down the nets. There was one Gonzaga and one Kansas bracket as well. So that leaves eight brackets with their champion still intact (Louisville, Duke or Florida). Here are the results:

  • M11 Contrarian – 98.5 (4 F4, Duke)
  • M5 Pulse Check – 94.9% (2 F4, Louisville)
  • M12 Nate Silver – 90.2% (2 F4, Louisville)
  • M13 Coach+Six – 90.2% (2 F4, Indiana)
  • M1 Kenpom – 86.7% (2 F4, Florida)
  • M8 Seed Match – 86.7% (2 F4, Indiana)
  • M2 F4/Champ – 82.8% (2 F4, Indiana)
  • M10 ESPN BPI – 82.8% (2 F4, Louisville)
  • M14 Costanza – 82.8% (2 F4, Duke)
  • M6 Factor PASE – 73.6% (1 F4, Kansas)
  • M7 Baseline – 73.6% (1 F4, Gonzaga)
  • M15 Keeper – 73.6% (3 F4, Indiana)
  • M4 Efficiency+Coach – 67.0% (2 F4, Florida)
  • M3 Outcome – 49.6% (3 F4, Louisville)
  • M9 Upset – 29.1% (1 F4, Indiana)

Surprisingly, the Contrarian model leads the pack–and it’s the only model that can still get all four Final Four teams right. If you’ll recall, I made a conscious effort here to avoid one seeds, so I had Duke, OSU, Florida and Syracuse advancing. Those are probably the odds-on favorites for these Elite Eight match-ups. Two other models, Keeper and Outcome Matching, have three possible Final Four teams…but Outcome Matching holds an edge because it retains its champion (Louisville).

In the battle of famous metrics-based models and no-brainer seed picking, Nate Silver holds a slight edge over Ken Pomeroy and ESPN BPI. Bragging rights all come down to the champion. Nate and ESPN like Louisville; Ken likes Florida. The Baseline higher-seed/higher-margin strategy favored Gonzaga. Ouch! So the “YourMom” approach fell flat this year.

Here’s another thing to consider: if Ohio State, Wichita State, Michigan, Marquette or Syracuse win the championship, none of the models will likely remain in the 90+ percentile level, with the exception of the Contrarian.

Posted in General News | 2 Comments

We’re at the Elite Eight…and it’s still the craziest tourney ever!

Posted on March 30, 2013 by ptiernan

The Madometer settled down a bit after the Sweet Sixteen, but at 21.6% madness, the 2013 tourney is still on pace to be the craziest dance of the 64-team era. Only the Midwest region, with #1 Louisville versus #2 Duke, has gone to high-seed form. In the West it’s a 2v9 tilt between Ohio State and them thar Shockers; in the South, it’s a 3v4 match-up between Florida and Michigan (how ‘about them Wolverines?); and the East also features a 3v4 game with Marquette and Syracuse.

To break the Madometer record, 2013 only needs to deviate from higher-seed perfection by 12 positions–and it’s already guaranteed to be five positions off one-seed dominance. So there are a number of ways to get to record craziness (this might not be all of them):

  • Wichita State beats Ohio State
  • Michigan and Syracuse advance–and either wins the dance
  • Michigan and Syracuse advance–and Duke beats Louisville
  • Michigan and Syracuse advance, either gets to the championship–and Louisville doesn’t

Basically, if Wichita State doesn’t upset Ohio State, either Michigan or Syracuse have to go all the way, or they both have to reach the Final Four. Got all that?

It’s highly unlikely that we’re going to tie the record of 13 upsets in a single dance. We’re currently at 10. The only way to get three more is for Wichita State to win it all. Yes, it could happen–and www.kenpom.com all give you the odds on that–but I don’t see it happening. One upset? Maybe. Three? No.

(**ASIDE: I try my best to keep my objectivity throughout the course of the college basketball season. After all, what good is a statistically-based analysis if rooting interest creeps into the numbers? That said, I think most people know I’m a Michigan alum and fan. I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention what an unbelievable game that was last night. I’ve been going to Michigan games since I was 10–back in the Rudy Tomjanovich era–and I don’t ever remember a more amazing comeback than last night’s stunner against Kansas. Ever. It was, to say the least, a happy night. I would’ve liked to see the Spartans advance–and keep things in the state, but there’s still the hope of an all-Big Ten Ohio State/Michigan final. How amazing would that be?)

Posted in Measuring Madness | 9 Comments

After the round of 32, the Madometer reads record 23.4% insanity

Posted on March 25, 2013 by ptiernan

It’s official: the tourney has gone absolutely Coastal! After three upsets in the round of 32, punctuated with the FGCU surprise over San Diego State, we’re now up to 10 shockers. That’s just three away from the record of 13.

And the Madometer has topped out at 23.4%–3.6% higher than the ultimate 19.8% madness of 2011. There’s still time for the tourney to settle below record insanity. But one or two upsets should push it over the edge. I’m feeling a chicken walk coming on…

Posted in General News, Measuring Madness | 12 Comments

Mountain Worst…and coaching performance musings

Posted on March 24, 2013 by ptiernan

Leading up to the 2013 tourney, I kept saying in all my interviews that the Mountain West teams would have to prove it to me before I went with them too deep in my bracket. After all, if you look at the conference PASE performance in the Ratings+ section, you’ll see that the Mountain West owns the worst PASE of any conference, past or present, in the 64-team tourney era. And it isn’t even close. Before this year, the collective PASE of their teams was a woeful -.330–and only eight of their 34 teams had beaten seed expectations.

The numbers will likely get worse. The conference sent five teams to the dance. One of them, Boise State, never made it to the Real First Round. The two highest seeds, #3 New Mexico and #5 UNLV, both got upset. Colorado State overachieved slightly, winning one game as an eight seed before succumbing to Louisville in round two. And only San Diego State is still in the dance.

If SDSU gets upset by Florida Gulf Coast today, the “Mountain Worst” will wind up with an abyssmal -.748 PASE for the tourney. If they do win, it will be -.498…and if they win two more games, it will be -.248. Suffice it to say that the conference’s reputation depends on the fate of the Aztecs.

The other aspect of the dance that’s interesting to me is how the coaching performance rankings will change. As of now, there are a set of high-profile coaches whose PASE will definitely decline:

  • Mark Few
  • John Thompson III
  • Jamie Dixon
  • Bo Ryan
  • Bruce Weber
  • Steve Alford
  • Mike Brey
  • Mick Cronin
  • Shaka Smart
  • Brad Stevens
  • Ben Howland

And there are a few coaches whose PASE will definitely increase:

  • Sean Miller
  • Dana Altman
  • Greg Marshall
  • Fred Hoiberg
  • Tommy Amaker
  • John Beilein
  • Tubby Smith
  • Jim Boeheim
  • Buzz Williams

The jury is still out on some other coaches (Coach K, Izzo, Pitino, Matta, Self, Donovan, Crean and Larranaga). I’ll be watching this closely as the dance continues.

Posted in Coach Ratings, General News | 9 Comments

Model performance: nothing spectacular, but most still in running

Posted on March 24, 2013 by ptiernan

Heading into the second day of the round of 32, most of the bracket models posted under the Tips+ section still have a fighting chance of success. All but two of the models are above the 60th percentile–and even Final Four/Champ has its Final Four intact. The only one that’s dead in the water is “Upset/Toss-up.” That’s the one that crazily liked Belmont in the Final Four. Hey–the West is certainly the wildcard region. The model just picked the wrong wildcard. Here are the results:

  • Model #5 Pulse Check, 340 – 95.3
  • Model #6 Factor PASE, 320 – 84.1
  • Model #7 Baseline, 320 – 84.1
  • Model #12 Nate Silver, 320 – 84.1
  • Model #13 Coach + Six, 320 – 84.1
  • Model #14 Costanza, 320 – 84.1
  • Model #15 Keeper, 320 – 84.1
  • Model #1 Kenpom, 310 – 73.0
  • Model #4 Eff+Coach, 310 – 73.0
  • Model #8 Seed Match-ups, 310 – 73.0
  • Model #11 Contrarian, 310 – 73.0
  • Model #3 Outcome, 300 – 61.3
  • Model #10 ESPN BPI, 300 – 61.3
  • Model #2 F4Champ, 260 – 18.4
  • Model #9 Upset/Toss-up, 260 – 18.4

I find it interesting to track the performance of Nate Silver, Ken Pomeroy and Dean Oliver (architect of ESPN’s new BPI system) against the no-brainer higher-seed strategy (model #7). So far, Silver and the no-brainer approach have a one-pick lead on Pomeroy…and Oliver is 20 points off. The higher-seed approach doesn’t have a chance of winning though: it liked Gonzaga going all the way. Nobody told it that Mark Few is snakebit.

Posted in General News | 9 Comments