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19 Responses to Thanks

  1. steve thomas says:


    Ready to roll. Chargers suk bad….time to move on to hoops!

  2. David says:

    Hi Pete, nice to see you back, looking forward to another fun year. surprises are already starting: Indiana/Butler

  3. Dan says:

    Pete, Good to be back, looking forward to another fun hoops season. Just curious if you plan on adding in some injury tracking information. Would really be helpful to see how a team’s performance (win/loss, offense/defensive effeciency) is affected when key players are in and out of the line-up.

    • ptiernan says:

      Dan – I have never been able to get valid enough data going back far enough to draw any definitive conclusions about the impact of injuries. That said, I’m sure the loss of key players (like Fab Melo last year) has an impact on a team’s performance. Tell you what, if you come up with 10-15 teams that had key injuries heading into the tourney, I can do an analysis of those teams and see if they beat or fell short of seed expectations.

      • Dan says:

        Thanks Pete, I noticed on that he has a injury notice feature this year in the individual player section. I also noticed that ESPN’s BPI Index provides a breakdown of each teams games when key players are not playing. I don’t recall seeing this information on either of those sites last year. Definetly worth a look.

  4. Dan says:

    Pete, totally agree but knowing information when a key player is out and/or coming back into the line-up will help put the regular season effeciency #’s and the won/loss record into better context for predictive purposes heading into the tournament.

    • ptiernan says:

      I see where you’re coming from, Dan. Agreed. I think about Duke…and their loss of Kelly, and the diminished abilities of Curry. Interesting point.

  5. 40wnks says:

    Doug Gottlieb (sp?) is always talking about “matchups”, has any statistical study been done to check what type of team matches up poorly against another?

    • ptiernan says:

      40wnks – I did an analysis on head-to-head match-ups for toss-up games (opponents within 3 seeds of each other). Certain stats are better than others at indicating the winner. That’s as close as I’ve come to a study of head-to-head match-ups.

  6. SpartanHoops1 says:

    It sure seems like the referees affect the outcome in the Big 10 games more than other conferences. Is my perception skewed since I watch more Big 10 basketball as an alumni or is there anything to it? Keep up the good work!

    • ptiernan says:

      I’m a Big Ten fan too (down in dreaded Ann Arbor). While I would agree that Big Ten reffing seems pretty atrocious, there have been some awful games lately. Last night’s Big East games were bad. That Charlotte debacle was ridiculous. My biggest problem is consistency. If it’s a foul in the first five minutes, it’s a foul in the last five minutes. And I hate ticky-tack calls out on the wings–while they beat the hell out of each other under the bucket.

  7. Frank Mirabella says:

    Excellent site Pete!! Great to be back with you!

    • ptiernan says:

      Sir Mirabella…you know that you never have to pay. BTW – just about to do three hours of “TV”–CBS Sports on-line content and CampusInsiders podcasts. Still need to get together. Your Gators are looking tough this year. They rate out as the most efficient team in the country. Their problem, though, is losing close games.

  8. Ryan says:

    I feel like I just found a gold mine of data to play with, and I’m looking forward to discovering all of what you provide here. I’ve been running Calcutta auctions for the tournament for a couple of years and cannot wait to apply the research I gather here to my valuation models over the next several months.

  9. Jacob says:

    Ready for another great year of hoops! I’m studying sport management at the University of Michigan and your site is the best distraction of all time. Inspired me to pursue a minor in applied statistics as well! Keep up the good work

    • ptiernan says:

      Hey Jacob…I’m sure we’ve talked about this already, but I’m a UM grad myself, still living in A2. Bad break on McGary. Have we seen him play his last game for Blue?

  10. Doug says:

    Hey Pete…Good to be back and looking forward to another great year of madness. One quick question in regards to this year’s version of the Florida Gators-at the risk of sounding like a newbie, what would cause a team like the Gators to be so outstanding in the KenPom efficiency numbers, and yet so marginal in their actual off/def and scoring margin numbers? I have always just sort of thought that the two, intuitively, work together. Thoughts?

    • ptiernan says:

      In a word, tempo. They’re the 25th slowest-paced team out of 351 in D-1 ball. And with fewer possessions, the margins get tighter. Even though the Gators have just a 13.1 margin, they score 22.6% more points than their opponents.

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