Round 2, Day 2 Forum

Credit Stanford for a great game plan–and blame Wiggins all you want for a poor game. But Bill Self did not do his star any favors by making him hang out on the wing, out of the action. He could’ve made Wiggins the post-flash player. And shame on Self for not putting Frankamp back into the game until late in the second half. Here’s a kid who sparked the Jayhawks in the first half…then rode the bench to the last two minutes of the game–when he hit two key threes to keep Kansas in the hunt. Needless to say, Self’s PASE will go down. And that’s fitting.

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18 Responses to Round 2, Day 2 Forum

  1. ptiernan says:

    One observation about Villanova’s loss, despite having no disqualifiers. I did a quick PASE analysis of 1 and 2 seeds that get more than 65% of their points from guards. The record isn’t good. The 24 teams have underachieved at a -.384 PASE rate and only a third of them have exceeded seed expectations. Maybe I should factor frontcourt/backcourt scoring balance into future champ checks.

    • Andy says:

      Interesting there about the guard play! I was concerned about this one but more because of Jay Wright’s shaky SOAR. But that is for sure something I will try to pay attention to next year with 1 and 2 seeds. Oh yeah, and just to re-affirm….called that Stanford pick! Like I mentioned, Kansas’s momentum and low victory margin, both put together, is very bad news for 1 and 2 seeds. Not one team seeded that high (1) with a victory margin below 10 points, (2) that is also coming into the tournament with fewer than seven wins in its last ten, while (3) losing its most recent game has ever gone to the Sweet 16.

      • Bullets-and-Blazers says:

        I told you. Jay Wright is garbage and I know Villanova well. I am glad I pick Uconn over them, but made a bad decision on New Mexico over kansas. We are 1-1 on 2 seed going down on round of 32. I can’t believe all #4 seed hit the sweet sixteen, the most ridiculous is Louisville. They have yet to convince me since they had an easy round of 32 opponent (St. Louis failure to score). How hard is it to pressure an offensively challenged team? Good luck in defeating Kentucky, finally Louisville is going down. Over rated throughout the season.

        • Andy says:

          I agree with you that Louisville is overrated, but I have long thought this whole Midwest regional is chock full of pretenders. Based on who is left, I say Louisville at least has the experience and the efficiency to get to the Final Four over the rest. Kentucky and Tennessee both missed the tournament last year and are woefully unlucky according to Ken Pomeroy, and Michigan can’t defend or rebound well at all. But do I think Louisville goes any further? Ummm….no. There is a reason why Arizona is in my final matchup over them. It is just way too unusual for a team with as soft a strength of schedule that also didn’t play its tough non conference opponents well to get that far. With everyone else having major chinks, Arizona advances.

          Something I just realized today about Stanford. You may be aware that they went on the road and beat UConn. But did you know that means they accomplished something that even FLORIDA couldn’t do! That’s right, the Gators went to UConn and lost on a last second bucket. Wonder if the committee noticed that and made sure Florida might have to play them to get to the Final Four, even if it would be quite unusual. I picked Stanford though to get there, and now feel quite a bit better for it, as Dayton doesn’t have such an impressive win on its résumé. However, they have Sean Miller’s brother coaching…will be interesting to say the least.

    • Ben says:

      Took a look at some of Nova’s stats coming into the dance and along with being guard heavy something else jumped out. They were a team that took a ton of threes (44.6% of their field goals) but they only made 36.1% of those shots during the season. They were a live by the 3, die by the 3 team. Not sure what the tournament history is with teams that are so three dependent but it might be interesting to look at.

      • ptiernan says:

        Last I studied this, the high risk/high reward strategy of chucking threes was good for Cinderella seeds, bad for favorites.

    • James G says:

      After the Big East’s total thud this year (basically comparable to the Mountain West in 2013), I’m wondering if the new Big East deserves the “big” conference label. Of the current members, Georgetown ’84 and Villanova ’85 are the only championships in history. Those pre-date UNLV’s 1990 championship.

  2. Will says:

    Wichita State looks pretty darn good. Not surprising at all if you watched them play during the regular season.

    Bill Self had a horrendous game plan today. Would also like to second request for more detailed champ checks, because this guy had Villanova in the national title game…

  3. ptiernan says:

    Will – I didn’t have them in the title game, if that’s what you mean. Only 1 of 16 models saw it that way. I’ll re-examine the champ rules. There are still three teams remaining who meet basic champ rules: Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan. I’d say Arizona is the only legit potential champ.

    In terms of the possession-based champ tests, these teams remain: Arizona, Virginia, Florida, Louisville, Wichita State, Tennessee, Michigan State and UCLA.

  4. ptiernan says:

    Kentucky/Wichita State – game of the tourney so far…and I don’t even know how it well end yet.

  5. Will says:

    Quick note: Upsets model called Wichita State and Virginia as underachievers (not likely to make Elite 8)…let’s see what happens tonight.

  6. Andy says:

    Not “shocked” that Wichita State is out early, as they were the weakest 1 seed and Kentucky the strongest 8. However, I am mildly surprised the upset took place. Kentucky didn’t have the markings to pull this upset off by either the seed matchup or upset models. Yes, Wichita State was a pretender, but according to the seed matchup model, they should have been safe for having a high enough victory margin. I am guessing that’s a product of their weak strength of schedule at work. I did wonder about it when I saw the bracket the first time, but couldn’t get myself to go with it based on these things. Oh well for there.

    Big sigh of relief that Iowa State won. But I said Roy Williams has never made the Sweet 16 when seeded lower than 4, so this wasn’t surprising. I realized this late, that I didn’t check the loss margins, and most of his four losses in that second round when seeded lower were by less than 10 points. A weaker 3 seed opponent, and North Carolina would be in the Sweet 16, whether coming in with two straight losses or not.

    That kind of makes me wonder, should victory margins when criteria are met be considered going forward? For instance, if a certain criteria make one team’s margin tight enough compared to other teams, and their opponent meets criteria that gives them a higher victory margin based on previous teams, the latter may have a better chance of winning. Just a concept for in the future, probably would be difficult to perform such an analysis though.

    • Bullets-and-Blazers says:

      If Wichita was a pretender based on their SOS, then Louisville should be on that list. Their best win on non-conference play was Southern Miss. To me, they are the worse #4 seed, and were very lucky to defeat Manhattan (Manhattan ranked in the 300th on fouls committed per game, I GUESS I HAVE TO FACTOR THAT NEXT TIME). As for St. Louis, do you really need to pressure an offensively-challenged team? I dislike the Wichita State lost to Kentucky and Wichita had them on the rope but their defense slipped away, but I am so glad that Louisville will be booted out in the hand of Kentucky (they already defeated Louisville). So as for back-to-back Final Four appearance, Michigan is the best team (I would’ve closed on them if McGary was on the line-up).

  7. Tom says:

    There will now be at least four Rookie coaches in the Sweet 16: Archie Miller, Kevin Ollie, Johnny Dawkins, and either Cuonzo Martin or Bob Hoffman (looking like Martin right now.) Brad Underwood could make it five.

    At least one (either Miller or Dawkins) will make the Elite 8.

  8. Gary Diny says:

    Lots of consistency this year with previous seed total averages for sweet 16. 3 double digits seeds. At least 1 #2 seed out prior to sweet 16. Thus far, sweet 16 seed total…. 1,4,11,10…?,4,3,7…?,4,?,2….8,4,11,2. Total of 71 with 3 games remaining. Lowest possible adds 5 more. But Baylor is up 23 with 11 minutes to go.

    That would also add a #6 seed in sweet 16 as well. Elite 8 is also guaranteed a double digit seed as well.

  9. Tom says:

    Baylor is shutting Creighton down; Doug McDermott has 11 points. Scott Drew takes a lot of flak but he does seem to be a really good tournament coach (and Greg McDermott a bad one.)

  10. Phaedrus says:

    Your comments on Frankamp are a little too simplistic. The reason he wasn’t on the floor at least in part was the fact that when he was on the floor is when Stanford went on their runs in the first and second half. He was a liability defensively. Sure he made some a couple of threes at the end of each half but his defense was not good. As to your other observations about Self’s tactics I cannot disagree too much. He seems to be exhibiting some inflexibility that is not consistent with the adjustments being made by other coaches.

    • ptiernan says:

      Fair enough, Phaedrus. I just thought he provided a boost late in the first half. Was worth a shot earlier than when the game was out of reach.

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