A decade of Duke woes…

With its startling loss to Mercer, Duke has now fallen short of seed-projected win totals in eight of 10 tourneys. And they’ve added to their record as upset victims, with 11 crushing losses. The next most shocked team is Oklahoma, with nine upsets.

I did a quick calculation, and Coach K’s PASE will go down to around +.304. That’s still overachieving…but it’s just 21st best of the 99 active coaches with three or more appearances.

More alarming: in the last ten years, Coach K’s PASE is a woeful -.810–nearly a game per dance below expectations. That would rank 97 out of 99, better than only Frank Haith and Oliver Purnell. Ouch! Blue Devil nations is hurting…

This entry was posted in Measuring Madness, Upset Spotting. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to A decade of Duke woes…

  1. Jason says:

    Peter thank you for all of the work you do each year to create the spreadsheet. My best friends and I spend the entire week pouring over it. After reading your comments about Coach K, it reminded me that most of his best work came in the 90s. Next year is there any chance you could break out a subset of that stat to show PASE over the last ten years? It would be a very useful comparison. Thanks again!

  2. Matt says:

    Interesting…in the last 10 years
    Coach K has had 9 opportunities as a 5 seed or higher, and only advanced to the Sweet 16 in 6 of those years.
    Boeheim has had 8 opportunities as a 5 seed or higher, and only advanced to the Sweet 16 in 4 of those years
    Izzo has had 7 opportunities…and he is 7-0.

    In fact, Izzo has never not advanced to the Sweet 16, when he has been seeded 5 or higher. 11 opportunities, 11 trips.

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