Round 1 Forum, Thursday Games

Member BD suggested that I open a forum to discuss the results of each round. Good idea. So far, three models have pegged the two upsets: F4/Champ, Seed Match-ups and Upset/Toss-up. The Billion Dollar bracket is done. That was fun. Right now, the Madometer reads 46.4%. Crazy mad. But it’s early.

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21 Responses to Round 1 Forum, Thursday Games

  1. Jono says:

    Yes! Need a daily forum. Loved the stats and models on the site. I’m 4-4 on 2 out of my 4 brackets. I picked Harvard in 3 of 4, Pitt in 4 of 4 and Dayton in 3 of 4. I have Dayton beating ‘Cuse next round too… fingas crosses.

    Loving the action… no models had Albany over Florida!?!

  2. BoDEAN says:

    Should have picked Dayton. Was the one pick I mulled over all week, and went with the majority pick from all models and chose OSU. Oh well, 1 wrong so far.

    • Gary Diny says:

      Yeah, I did not pull the trigger on Dayton. Gave it a thought, but felt that OSU was better poised to take down Syracuse. Maybe something with that in state rivalry thing…getting a shot at playing the BIG in state school that never wants to play you. That game was close and could have went either way at the end.


  3. Ryan Tressler says:

    Only filled out two brackets this year on espn, one I made a more extreme outcome matching model (using my own more specific quidelines) with the kenpom ratings and used for all it my pools (plus my yahoo for the billion) the other i filled out by form fitting the seed model to fit realistic expectations for a perfect tournament (aka, basically an outcome matching model using the seed guide) . . . the first bracket has one loss and it was Dayton (ugh) . . . the second bracket is still perfect thus far (double ugh) . . . i hitched my trailer to wrong wagon, haha

    Also, there are ALREADY only a little over 400,000 perfect brackets left on espn . . . thats nuts, haha, after only 8 games, its only around 3% of the brackets left

  4. ptiernan says:

    That end of game clock management by NC State was atrocious. Missing the free throws is one thing, but they just let Saint Louis shoot threes. I think the models split on that game, but watching it play out had to be annoying for Wolfpack fans.

    • Gary Diny says:

      Man these Cinderella’s need to learn how to close out games. NC State missing FT’s and as Pete mentioned poor clock management. St Joe’s not much better. ND ST trying their best to give Oklahoma the game as well.

      Come on Bison’s, pull this one out for me.


  5. Alex says:

    So far 10 out of 12 – NC State had this game and gave it away. So I can sleep at night knowing I didn’t make a mistake in picking them. Sometimes “luck” just happens. It’s a wild-card you can never predict. Cmon up 16 with 8 left. Unreal. My other pick was St. Joe’s and they went to OT with UCONN who was the strongest of the 7 seeds. Furthermore St Joes lost their big man in the OT. Again things you cannot account for.St. Joe’s game was closer. One thing both teams have in common they couldn’t close their games out. NC State couldnt hit FT’s and St. Joe’s were giving away FT’s in the OT.

  6. Mitch says:

    These overtime games did not go my way. I had Oklahoma and NC State for most of my brackets. Less than 42000 perfect brackets left. Sadly my best bracket is my “favorite teams” bracket with a final four of UCLA, Oregon, Harvard, and Cal Poly.

  7. Tom says:

    Florida seemed to really struggle to put Albany away, and watching the game probably the disturbing thing for Florida fans has to be that it didn’t really look like they were playing poorly or sleepwalking.

  8. Andy says:

    Some thoughts on today’s action. I’ll go region by region.

    We’ll begin with the South. I didn’t get to watch Florida, but if some are saying they didn’t play bad, maybe it’s just a credit to how Albany played. Plus, I’m not sold just based on that closer-than-should’ve-been result and Pitt’s blowout win that that means Pitt has a really good chance at busting a lot of brackets. It seems like it happens every year where a favorite struggles to win a game while their next opponent wins its in a blowout….and the favorite still wins, sometimes (if not often) rather convincingly. Jamie Dixon is still not exactly known for pulling off major upsets. Meanwhile, I think I’m not surprised Dayton had such a tough game with Ohio State, given that the Buckeyes were the top 6 by Pythag and Dayton the bottom 11. However, even the strong seeds struggle if they have little offense, as is the case with Ohio State. Syracuse’s blowout win doesn’t particularly surprise me, as Western Michigan was clearly overmatched from the get-go as a weak 14. I picked Dayton over Syracuse, and their gutty win still gives me reason to think it could happen, but I feel good about keeping Dayton out of the Elite Eight in favor of Stanford. But I may find out more about that tomorrow!

    Now the West. I called it, and North Dakota State pulled it off in overtime. Still liking their Sweet 16 chances, especially against a San Diego State team that is already questionable to begin with and could never really pull away from New Mexico State and then messed up badly. North Dakota State fought back to force overtime and then took over, while San Diego State muffed it to allow overtime but survived. I really like the Bison’s up-tempo style of play too versus the grinder style that the Aztecs play. North Dakota State (assuming they win on Saturady) won’t beat Arizona, but I knew I saw something in them when I picked them to win at least this one. On the other side, no surprises with Wisconsin and Oregon winning their games convincingly. Wisconsin’s slow start has to be concerning though, even though they dominated in the end. If they start slowly against Oregon, the Ducks could really run away and never look back. Still feeling good about this upset pick on Saturday, even in Milwaukee.

    As for the Midwest, what a heartbreaker for NC State. I don’t think I can remember the last time a team blew it so bad by missing so many free throws. They deserved to win, and then they didn’t. And Louisville….well Manhattan was a good 13 seed and probably would have upset UCLA or San Diego State, but there is a reason why the Cardinals are not in my Final Four. Then again, Kentucky played that tight with Princeton a few years ago, and it still worked out. Still leaning toward Elite Eight though for Louisville. And no surprises with Michigan, but what a heartbreaker for Arizona State. Not really surprising either, and I had Texas winning anyway, but the Sun Devils made it a lot closer than I thought. But Michigan did play kind of sloppy, so Texas might be able to make it close. But Rick Barnes doesn’t pull off upsets, so the Wolverines should be OK for the Sweet 16 if they play halfway decent.

    And finally the East. Again, the upset with Harvard, but this didn’t surprise me at all. Harvard has been on my radar as a potential giant killer for a long time. I couldn’t pick them to beat Michigan State since the Spartans are now healthy and playing like they are capable of, but it could be a more compelling game than some are banking on. But yeah, can’t imagine Izzo losing to an Ivy League school. And of course Villanova winning its game rather convincingly isn’t a surprise, but how about UConn coming back to force overtime and then win? I picked it, but St. Joe’s turned out to be a lot tougher than I thought, even though they had momentum winning the Atlantic 10 tournament. UConn will be a tough out for the Wildcats, and I think it will be decided by a possession or two, but have to think Villanova wins this one.

    14 for 16 for the day, and didn’t lose any Sweet 16 picks. All in all, not a bad day at all. Looking forward to the games tomorrow!

  9. Mitch says:

    Uhhh… I went 11/16 losing three games in over time and the other two games were both one possession. Meanwhile “My gut” bracket that took two min to fill out is 14/16.

  10. B D says:

    Sitting at 140/160 and no longer leading my pool unfortunately. Leader has Providence going to E8 in their pool otherwise that bracket looks wicked.

    I got burned on 2 #12 picks, NM State and NC State.

    Still a lot of perfect brackets going in ESPN Leaderboard. It is going to be a great day of basketball today.

  11. Kaz says:

    Anyone else bitter about NC State handing the game away? That was my first incorrect pick (missed Texas/ASU as well).

    • ptiernan says:

      Yes. Awful clock management. Gottfried had two FT shooters with 56% and 44% averages in down the stretch. And Lewis was on the bench! Yes, he committed a bunch of TOs, but he can make free throws. And then the three defending was ridiculously bad. They basically handed that game to Saint Louis. And the Billikens didn’t exactly play perfectly either.

  12. Blazers!! says:

    No doubt I am the only one that picked Manhattan over Louisville (lost by seven only) and they were very close!! Kudos to Manhattan, they lived up to my expectation. Aside from that, my other mistake were OSU over Dayton (lost by one point) and ASU over Texas (lost by two at buzzer). Lost by a combine of 10 points only! Looks like no 13 over 4 this march as no way will UCLA lose to a inexperience Tulsa game.

    • Andy says:

      La Salle was inexperienced last year though, although K-State was admittedly a very bad 4 seed. I like Tulsa’s momentum, don’t like UCLA’s loss to Washington State right before the Pac-12 tournament, and really don’t trust Steve Alford. Gonna be a close game….if UCLA wins then oh well since I like VCU better anyway, but if Tulsa wins I told you so! You are right though about Manhattan, a very solid 13 that simply drew the wrong 4. Against UCLA or San Diego State, they win.

      • Bullets-and-Blazers!! says:

        Alright, but I wouldn’t bank on it. My rule about passing the powerhouse conference champ [this year, there are only five powerhouse conference Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC and ACC] to atleast the round of 32 is on the line. This year champs are:

        SEC – Florida [passed]
        Big Ten – Michigan State [passed]
        ACC – Virginia [pending]
        Pac 12 – UCLA [pending]
        Big 12 – Iowa State [pending]

        2013 had six conferences:
        ACC – UMiami [passed]
        Big 12 – Kansas [passed]
        Big Ten – Ohio State [passed]
        SEC – Ole Miss [passed]
        Big East – Louisville [passed]
        Pac 12 – Oregon [passed]

        Not bad, eh?

  13. Dee says:

    14/16 not a bad start, today a new day.

    Gonzaga with FG% will be a great pick for me over OK St.

    Tennessee will be a great pick, as well as Providence, the rest is chalk.

    Looking to go 15/16.

  14. Kaz says:

    Anyone else have New Mexico going to the elite 8? Crazy? I combined two different models on this site and that’s what spit it out. I hope I’m onto something, lol.

  15. John L says:

    OH MY! Mercer is about to crack some brackets.

  16. Gary Diny says:


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