I just posted the final 16 models, including my new Keeper Small Pool and Billion Dollar brackets.

There has been one HUGE CHANGE overnight based on the results of last night’s Tennessee win. Louisville leapfrogged Arizona in KenPom Pythag efficiency ratings. It has affected the outcome of model #1, but none of the other models that factor in KenPom numbers.

The final models are under the TIPS+ section and they’re called “2014 Models FINAL.”

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  1. Ray Hunt says:

    I can not find the brackets. Nowhere can I find the link called “2014 Models Wave 4″

  2. Jay Patel says:

    Do you have a PASE attribute for distance from campus. Want to know if playing withing 300,400,500 miles of campus makes a difference.

  3. Cullen R. Buie says:

    Hey Peter,

    Way too late for this now, but next year in the ‘seed guide’ it would be cool to know the historical results when both the lower seed and the higher seed meet the listed criteria. For example, when the high seed meets the upset criteria and the low seed looks vulnerable. Right now you list the win % when one or the other is true, but not when both criteria are met. This would be particularly helpful in the first few rounds. Otherwise, love your stuff, keep it coming!


  4. Bodean says:

    Thanks. Patiently waiting for your final brackets / revision

  5. Scott says:

    When will the last 2 brackets be posted??? It’s close to cut off time for entries.

  6. chrism says:

    Im not sure I’m seeing the difference in model 2. This is the f4champ one right? I still see Florida Nova Zona Duke with Zona winning

    • ptiernan says:

      Sorry Chris. I meant model #1. I’m regretting naming the first one model A. I changed the note above. Thanks.

      • Matt says:

        Pete- Does your final 4 change much from your small keeper pool in comparison to your billion dollar bracket?
        Thoughts on Nova reaching the final four?

        • ptiernan says:

          The Keeper pool was intentional picks. The Billion Dollar one used the Brack-o-Matic and two conditions: at least two ones in the F4 and two double-digit seeds in the S16. The models are posted for you to view.

  7. Dee says:

    Good luck fellow BS’s ers, My final 4 are FL, AZ, Louisville, Mich St, with Louisville cutting down nets.

    Best shocker, Tenn beating the Dukies and sending them home.

    Enjoy, thanks Tim for all the work, won my 2011 pool with UConn because of you.

  8. Cole says:


    I’m not seeing the brackets either. I’m not seeing the link for Wave 4 models anywhere.(I am a paid member. I got to say, I go threw this every year, finding the brackets.

  9. Dee says:

    Peter, my bad, Tim is who I send my picks to in my contest I won, of course I meant Peter.

    Would like to meet you someday, maybe my Red Raiders under Tubby Smith will be back in the tour in about 3 years, give him two or three recruiting classes.

    Enjoy the next two days.

    • ptiernan says:

      No worries Dee. I’m up here in the hinterlands of Michigan. Still a pile of snow at the end of my driveway.

  10. Dee says:

    Here were my hardest decisions bases on filling out a complete bracket.
    Baylor VS Creighton
    VCU VS SF Austin
    Michigan St VS Villanova
    Ok St VS Gonzaga

    Assuming all win.

    P.S. If Villanova wins the whole thing, I will kick myself as Peter has this team as the only team with all 3 criteria merits. I just couldn’t do it. Well see.

  11. Dee says:

    Peter, I’m in West Texas where the sand is piled high in our driveways, will trade you.

    Worst drought in history out here. Dust Bowl here we come.

  12. James G says:

    Looks like there two big computer rankings changes – Louisville moved up over Arizona in KenPom to #1. And unless I had this one incorrectly, BPI had Wichita State jump over Louisville (at least I thought it was the other way around 2 days ago). Wichita State is now #3 and Louisville is now #4. I really thought it was the other way round when I originally went to fill out my brackets.

  13. Ryan Tressler says:

    seed guide nails Dayton vs Ohio State!!! Ohio was listed as potential victim and Dayton was a killer . . . and it happened!

    • larry k says:

      YUP, for those of us who had Dayton, it was a GREAT last second shot (and followup miss by O-St) !!

      Now lets see HARV due the same :-)

  14. B D says:


    Can we have a dedicated tracker/thread going everyday to discuss the results please? Awesome info here, the best I found after subbing AND some of your reader comments.

    Have correctly picked Dayton and Harvard upsets so far based on the research here.

  15. James G says:

    And after Louisville’s narrow win over Manhattan with Arizona not playing, Arizona moves back on top of Louisville in the KenPom ratings.

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