I hate to do this to everyone, but Insider Scott pointed out a mistake in the Outcome Matching that has a big impact on the upset victims in the second round and Sweet 16.
Remember when I left Tennessee out of the Cinderella group in round one? Well, I fixed that problem quickly…and didn’t think to analyze if they were a good candidate for subsequent rounds. It turns out they were–the best candidate in fact. And Iowa was also a strong Cinderella.
So…that means either the Vols or Hawkeyes should be tabbed as beating both Duke and Michigan. This changes the fortunes of Iowa State, who now escapes Providence in round two, and Creighton, who gets by Oregon in the Sweet 16.
My apologies for the back-and-forth on this model. But I want to get it right…and I appreciate Scott’s thoroughness.
On the plus side, there are two more models: my Contrarian bracket and the one spawned by the new Brack-o-Matic tool. Tomorrow, I’ll complete the set with two more brackets, Keeper for Friends and Keeper for the World.