2014 West Region Forum

This seems to be the most clear-cut region to me…and that’s scary. I hate when I lock into rigid thinking about my picks. But who’s going to beat Arizona? Maybe Oklahoma State catches lightning in a bottle, but I don’t see it.

On the two side, I’m not sold on Wisconsin and Bo Ryan. But I don’t know about Creighton either. That could open the door for an imposing Baylor squad or them pesky Ducks.

A couple models have Nebraska or North Dakota springing an upset, but this one has gone pretty chalky.

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12 Responses to 2014 West Region Forum

  1. marktearle says:

    this bracket seems like straight chalk to me…

    side note, if Louisville lives up to the hype and make a f4 run…that would be a hell of a game against a team like ‘zona. just sayin

  2. Mark Barr says:

    I agree… Chalk with 9. Okla over 8. Zaga… there is usually 1 region that follow seed and I think this will be it.

  3. Andy says:

    I disagree with the lack of upsets! Yes, Arizona wins the regional, but it isn’t just because of their talent and Sean Miller being such a reliable coach. I don’t see either San Diego State or Oklahoma in the Sweet 16 (don’t trust the Mountain West and Lon Kruger is actually more of an underachiever in recent history than you might think). I actually think of the game with North Dakota State as just about a 4-13 matchup, and North Dakota State has played some tough competition this year. I can’t go with New Mexico State based on their history, but the Bison would not surprise me one bit if they play Arizona.

    I also can’t go with Wisconsin as I very much distrust Bo Ryan in the tournament, and in fact I like Oregon with their momentum (save their last game) and style of play to make them a good candidate for a Cinderella over them. They did this last year over Oklahoma State and a similarly weak St. Louis team, too. I will say that Creighton makes the Sweet 16 though. I mulled Baylor, and though Scott Drew has two Elite Eight runs in his early résumé, he has actually never won as a lower seed, plus the turnover margin is AWFUL.

    However I am thinking hard about Creighton and Oregon. I really question how snake bit McDermott and Altman really are. I am leaning towards Oregon though. Altman has been a double digit seed in all but one dance in his career, and finally broke into the Sweet 16 last year as a 12. Plus, Creighton also has a negative turnover margin problem. However, Oregon doesn’t beat Arizona in the rubber match.

    • John says:

      I agree with everything you said but I am REALLY struggling with deciding who will go to the elite 8 from the bottom half. I know Bay has sured up its PG play so hopefully they turn it over less I like their size against a small creighton team and creighton had trouble against the 1-3-1 zone against Providence. I think Baylor could make a run, they’re a hot team – but it will be hard to bet against McDermott

    • Matty says:

      One thing that makes me very nervous about Oregon: they commit too many fouls (21.3/g), and they commit more fouls than their opponents (+0.8/g). Amardi, Austin, Carter, and Cook really rack them up.

      I think the average number of fouls committed by a winning team in the NCAA tourney is around 16. Pete, any science on fouls committed or differential for picking tourney winners?

      Thanks,

      Matty

      • ptiernan says:

        I got nothing on fouls. But that is worrisome…and some of the models like Oregon over Wisconsin. That said, how many times do the Badgers go to the foul line?

      • larry k says:

        did you mean to say 8 f/g more than their opponents?

        if 0.8 is correct, i dont see how that matters much… .8 should be in the noise

        larry

  4. Paul says:

    I’ve watched every Badger game I could this year. I love their deep talent but something is missing. One thing… they didn’t win anything. Neither Big Ten titles and they had the players to get one of them done. Their biggest problem is guarding good players who can take it to the hoop. Really struggled at times. They are at their best when they concentrate on defense because this year they have enough shooters to win games. They are deep having 2 Freshman coming off the bench who can change games. They are at their worst when they stand around the 3 line. (especially Kaminski) They need good ball movement, drive to the hoop and if its not there find the open shooter. There are no stars so most everyone needs to be on their game.

  5. Paul says:

    WEST PREDICTIONS

    CHAMP GAME: Arizona over Wisconsin. Gotta agree with this region as mostly chalk. Arizona will get through without too much trouble. There are some bumps. Okie State can be good at times and SDSU plays some great D. As for Wisconsin I feel they are being very underrated here. Oregon is getting all the buzz but like I said the Badgers can be beat if you pound it inside. That’s not Oregon. And if they foul like they do they are in for a long slow down type of night.

    UPSET ALERT: I watched Nebraska down the stretch and I was very impressed. They handled Wisconsin at home and they were blasting Ohio State by 20 in Indy when things fell apart for them. If they can get over that I think they have the team to beat Creighton.

    Don’t forget Wisconsin was unbeaten outside of the Big Ten against a pretty good line up of teams. And Arizona’s injury takes away some inside presence.

  6. Ryan Tressler says:

    I finally landed on picking Creighton out of this region, despite their defense . . . I’m betting on #3 putting the team on his back and getting them to Final Four, haha . . .dont feel 100% about any of the teams in this region, so why not bet on the best (collegiate) player

  7. Marc says:

    Here’s my final take on this bracket. Pretty chalky. Got OK St over the Zags, and Creighton over Wisconsin. I really mulled over the Baylor/Creighton matchup in rd 2 but Creighton protects the ball so much better than Baylor and I always like the team with the go-to scorer. Off efficiency and rebounding are in Creighton’s favor, too. Arizona comes out of this bracket.

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