I think this is the most wide-open bracket. I struggle to see Virginia getting to Arlington, which would seem to clear the way for the Spartans. But there are a lot of tough teams on the two side of the bracket. I could see Villanova, Iowa State or North Carolina reaching the Elite Eight. And they’re all solid candidates to knock off MSU. We forget: before the Big Ten tourney, Izzo’s bunch was not playing all that well. Now everyone is jumping on the bandwagon. It may pay to stay off it.
As for upsets, plenty of models like the chic Harvard pick. There’s one that even sees them shocking Sparty. Providence is another low seed that’s made it to the Elite Eight in a couple of models.