I’m working through the rest of the models today. The first one on tap is “Pulse Check Stats.” That one uses some basic high-seed advancement rules, then observes the following numbers to pick the rest of the bracket:
Some observations on these numbers:
- Villanova is the only team free of any disqualifiers. Gosh, they were also the team that passed all three champ tests. The numbers are trying to tell me something…and I don’t think I’m listening.
- Virginia has a lot of disqualifiers for a one seed.
- Duke looks to be the only three seed worth considering.
- Both MSU and Louisville are unusually strong four seeds…but you didn’t need the numbers to tell you that.
- Watch out for VCU.
- Kentucky jumps out as an uncommonly strong eight seed, with just five DQs.
- Tennessee and Iowa should not be playing the play-in game.
- Harvard has the fewest DQs of any 12 seed.
- Texas Southern with just eight DQs as a 16 seed. Whoa.
Here’s the legend to read this:
- 14 – Did they go to last year’s dance? (An “N” gets a disqualifier) I should’ve made this “13,” but too much going on right now to change.
- CY – How many tourney trips has the coach made? (Should be more than three)
- E8 – How many times has the coach been to the Elite Eight? (At least once)
- PASE – Is their coach a historical over- or underachiever? (A negative PASE gets a scarlet box)
- CA – What’s their conference affiliation? (Should be a Big Six conference)
- SOS – What’s their strength of schedule (Anything worse than 50 is bad)
- PR – What’s their possession-based Pythag ranking (Should be top 15)
- OE – Where do they rate for offensive efficiency? (Must be 25 or better)
- DE – Where do they rate for defensive efficiency? (Must be 25 or better)
- PPG – What’s their point scoring average (Should be 73 points per game or more)
- MAR – What’s their average scoring margin (Needs to be better than 10 points)
- MO – How’s their current momentum (any team more than four losses in the last 10 or two in a row gets a disqualifier)
- R+T – Combined rebounding and turnover margin