Model performance heading into the Final Four

I meant to post this earlier. Here are the results of the various strategies used to fill out the brackets for the 2013 tourney. The numbers refer to where the models fall by percentile in the ESPN Tourney Challenge. Each model’s champion is in parentheses. Four of the 15 models like Louisville; none of them picked Syracuse, Michigan or Wichita State.

  • M11 Contrarian, 95.0% (Duke)
  • M5 Pulse Check, 91.3 (Louisville)
  • M12 Nate Silver, 87.3% (Louisville)
  • M13 Coach + Six, 87.3% (Indiana)
  • M1 Kenpom, 84.8 (Florida)
  • M2 F4Champ, 82.1 (Indiana)
  • M10 ESPN BPI, 82.1 (Louisville)
  • M14 Costanza, 82.1% (Duke)
  • M6 Factor PASE, 76.0 (Kansas)
  • M7 Baseline, 76.0 (Gonzaga)
  • M15 Keeper, 76.0% (Indiana)
  • M4 Eff+Coach, 71.2 (Florida)
  • M3 Outcome, 59.1 (Louisville)
  • M8 Seed Match-up, 54.9 (Indiana)
  • M9 Upset/Toss-up, 42.5 (Indiana)

Even though the Contrarian model is in the top 95th percentile, Pulse Check is in the best position to yield winning results. Nate Silver’s model also figures to do well, as does ESPN’s BPI.

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