The Madometer settled down a bit after the Sweet Sixteen, but at 21.6% madness, the 2013 tourney is still on pace to be the craziest dance of the 64-team era. Only the Midwest region, with #1 Louisville versus #2 Duke, has gone to high-seed form. In the West it’s a 2v9 tilt between Ohio State and them thar Shockers; in the South, it’s a 3v4 match-up between Florida and Michigan (how ‘about them Wolverines?); and the East also features a 3v4 game with Marquette and Syracuse.
To break the Madometer record, 2013 only needs to deviate from higher-seed perfection by 12 positions–and it’s already guaranteed to be five positions off one-seed dominance. So there are a number of ways to get to record craziness (this might not be all of them):
- Wichita State beats Ohio State
- Michigan and Syracuse advance–and either wins the dance
- Michigan and Syracuse advance–and Duke beats Louisville
- Michigan and Syracuse advance, either gets to the championship–and Louisville doesn’t
Basically, if Wichita State doesn’t upset Ohio State, either Michigan or Syracuse have to go all the way, or they both have to reach the Final Four. Got all that?
It’s highly unlikely that we’re going to tie the record of 13 upsets in a single dance. We’re currently at 10. The only way to get three more is for Wichita State to win it all. Yes, it could happen–and www.kenpom.com all give you the odds on that–but I don’t see it happening. One upset? Maybe. Three? No.
(**ASIDE: I try my best to keep my objectivity throughout the course of the college basketball season. After all, what good is a statistically-based analysis if rooting interest creeps into the numbers? That said, I think most people know I’m a Michigan alum and fan. I’d be remiss if I didn’t at least mention what an unbelievable game that was last night. I’ve been going to Michigan games since I was 10–back in the Rudy Tomjanovich era–and I don’t ever remember a more amazing comeback than last night’s stunner against Kansas. Ever. It was, to say the least, a happy night. I would’ve liked to see the Spartans advance–and keep things in the state, but there’s still the hope of an all-Big Ten Ohio State/Michigan final. How amazing would that be?)