In the Outcome Matching model, I’ve got Boise State beating Kansas State, because they were among the top five closest upset match-ups in KenPom efficiency differential. Boise State looks like they’re about to lose to La Salle. So what should you do with Outcome Matching if La Salle beats Boise State?
As luck would have it, La Salle’s differential with Kansas State is the next closest among the upset match-ups. So…just replace La Salle as the Cinderella, defeating the Wildcats. (I hope this doesn’t make the K-State fans in the forum too nervous. Stick to your guns.)