In the Outcome Matching model, I’ve got Boise State beating Kansas State, because they were among the top five closest upset match-ups in KenPom efficiency differential. Boise State looks like they’re about to lose to La Salle. So what should you do with Outcome Matching if La Salle beats Boise State?
As luck would have it, La Salle’s differential with Kansas State is the next closest among the upset match-ups. So…just replace La Salle as the Cinderella, defeating the Wildcats. (I hope this doesn’t make the K-State fans in the forum too nervous. Stick to your guns.)
Peter Tiernan has been using stats to analyze March Madness for 22 years. He writes for 
” KenPom efficiency differential” — trying to figure where you got those numbers from? I’m on the site now (as an insider), can’t seem to see where that is coming from. Any help??
Gary – I calculated those from the Excel sheet. Found the Pythag’s of each favorite and subtracted their Cinderella opponent’s Pythag.
I almost wish MTSU would have beat STM. I would have still picked MTSU to beat Memphis, but I wouldn’t have had MTSU beating MSU…I had STM beating MSU…which could indeed bust my bracket to pieces…
St. Mary’s is a bothersome pick. The way La Salle played last night has me wondering too.
It isn’t march until a 4 seed lose to a 13 seed (and perhaps a 12 v 13 seeds in the round of 32). Will Wisconsin meets its demise this year? Their offense stats is very poorly.