If you’re new to Bracket Science, you may not know about the Madometer. It’s a way of measuring the relative unpredictability of the tournament.
The Madometer works by measuring the seed-position differences between actual winners and perfect high-seed success or failure in all six rounds of the dance. If the higher seed advanced in all 63 games of the tourney (perfect sanity), the cumulative seed value of the winners would be 203. If the lower seed always advanced (sheer madness), their cumulative seed value would be 868. The difference between the two—665—is the predictability range. If you add up all the seed positions of the teams advancing in the dance, then subtract 203 and divide by 665, you arrive at the percentage by which the tourney deviates from perfect higher-seed dominance.
Got all that? If not, don’t worry. I’ll calculate the Madometer value for you after each night of the tourney. Then I’ll report the reading on this handy gauge that displays the range between “complete Wooden sanity” and “utter Chitwoodin’ madness”:
If you want to know more about the Madometer, and see its readings for the last 28 years, check out this blog post: http://wp.bracketscience.com/?p=186
I fully expect this year’s dance to contend with 2011′s record of 19.8% unpredictability. We shall see…