I’ve had several requests from members to identify the Cinderella teams according to the Upset rules from the article in the Tips+ section. I’ll do that first, then list the teams that come closest to the favored opponent according to KenPom efficiency data.
Cinderellas by historical upset rules
Round one: 11 seeds – St. Mary’s, Belmont, 12 seed – California, 13 seeds – South Dakota State, Montana
Round two: 1v8 – None, 2v7 – Notre Dame, 2v10 – Cincinnati, Oklahoma, Iowa State, 3v11 – St. Mary’s, Belmont, 4v12 – Ole Miss
Sweet 16: Depending on the match-ups, any one of these teams has the numbers to spring an upset…if they’re still around: VCU, UNLV, Memphis, Butler, Arizona, Creighton, Colorado State, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, Missouri, Oklahoma, Iowa State, St. Mary’s , Middle Tennessee
Cinderellas by KenPom efficiency proximity
Round one (top eight, closest to farthest): Minnesota (.0504), St, Mary’s (-.0316), Middle Tennessee (.0115), Bucknell (-.0267), Boise State (-.0386), Oregon (-.0541), La Salle (-.0607),Belmont (-.0615).
Round two (top eight, closest to farthest): Ole Miss (-.0068), Creighton (-.0395), St. Mary’s (-.0459) (San Diego State (-.0499), Oregon (-.0644), Belmont (-.0704), Illinois (-.0756), Notre Dame (-.0799)
Sweet 16: Too many options to calculate