Midwest Region Forum

A few members suggested that I open forums for each of the regions. Your wish is my command (well…not really). So here’s the forum for the West region. You’ll notice in the “Categories” column that there’s a new category call “Bracket Forums.” That’s where I’ll store all these.

I’ll get the ball rolling with a couple of the questions that have me scratching my head about the West:

  • Is Oregon getting overhyped as a 12 seed Cinderella just because they would seem to have gotten jobbed in the seeding?
  • The numbers say that St. Mary’s is a strong Cinderella candidate–if they can get by La Salle. You buying?
  • Michigan State or Duke…who ya got? (And could Creighton crash that party?)
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51 Responses to Midwest Region Forum

  1. dee qualls says:

    I forgot my password, what do I do?

    I’m on another computer and my auto login doesn’t come up.

    Help

    • ptiernan says:

      Dee – Please send sign-on questions to the link under my picture on the right. So much going on that I have to have Tech Support handle that.

  2. Ryan Tressler says:

    I would say it is being over-exaggerated how much Oregon got jobbed. Their efficiency numbers point to a 10 seed (or eleven seed if teams like Virginia and Denver would have gotten in). That is not exactly a huge difference in seed. Also, winning the Pac 12 tournament does not mean much to me this year.

  3. Jake Daniel says:

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but according to the 2013 Seed Guide the matchup between Michigan St and Duke seems to favor the Spartans. Duke has less than 60% of their points from either the backcourt or front court. Balanced scoring squads, like Duke, are just 8-10 (.444) versus the 3 seed. Michigan St doesn’t sore more than 71 points per game, the Spartans do meet the other qualifications of a 3 seed beating a 2 seed. The 3 seed who meets all qualifications are 12-10 (.545) versus the 2 seed. It would not surprise me to see Michigan St advance to the Elite Eight. So, my heart is set on picking the Spartans.

    • ptiernan says:

      I didn’t do the Seed Matchup model this year. But Ryan Tressler did. It’s included in the 2013 Model packet.

    • Ryan Tressler says:

      The qualification calls for Michigan State to score more than 71, not less, that might be where you got turned around

    • Ryan Tressler says:

      wait, I see what you are saying now, you are excluding the points scored as a qualifier, haha. I could definitely see Michigan State winning that game. It would be a battle between the new pase king (apologies to Shaka and Brad Stevens) and the old pase king

  4. Beau Bradshaw says:

    In regards to St.Mary’s after running the numbers they certainly seem to have upset potential assuming the beat MTSU. The numbers seem to suggest a win over Michigan St. Is this out of the question?

    • Andy M says:

      I think a win over Michigan St. is definitely possible, especially considering St. Mary’s ability to force turnovers and MSU’s penchant for turning it over. Also, I had Oregon winning the 1st game until I saw that 5 seeds with All-americans are 14-3 in the 1st round. Do you guys think Creighton has a shot to knock off Duke?

  5. SpartanHoops1 says:

    Does anyone else think that Saint Louis could make a surprise run and (gasp) beat Louisville? Maybe just wishful thinking to see the Cards out of the Final Four.

  6. Bob H says:

    Payne + Nix > Plumlee + anyone else who will try to play inside

    It sounds simple, but this is what is going to give Duke big issues in Indianapolis

    • ptiernan says:

      Ah Bob…but the backcourt…the backcourt. Love Harris, wonder about Appling.

      • Bob H says:

        Do you love Cook and Sulaimon though? I actually think that MSU backcourt may be more dependable. Regardless, Duke gets beat when they are dominated inside, and I’m afraid that might happen with this matchup.

  7. Eric Hensch says:

    I really want to believe in the St. Mary’s hype. I also think there will be at least one 11 over 6 upset.

    However, Memphis is possibly the most athletic team in the tournament. They’ll get a decisively less athletic team that had played 2 days prior — quite possibly a little worn out. St. Mary’s is 5-4 on 2 or less days of rest.

    I gotta give the advantage to Memphis.

    • ptiernan says:

      Do this: don’t make that pick until–and if–St. Mary’s gets by La Salle. I’m going to adjust the Outcome Matching bracket if that comes to pass.

      • SpartanHoops1 says:

        Does anyone else think both St. Marys and Middle Tennessee got ripped off having to play in the play-in game?

        Why didn’t Albany, W. Kentucky, Southern U, etc. get the play in game? btw, it seems like both Middle Tenn and St. Marys matches up well with Memphis.

        • Michael says:

          The way the NCAA tournament works the last 4 at large teams play in two of the first four games. The names you mentioned received auto-bids.

      • John R. says:

        Isn’t St. Mary’s playing Middle Tennessee, not LaSalle? I’ll take either one of those over Memphis…

        • ptiernan says:

          Yeah…might’ve confused that. Boise vs. La Salle. St. Mary’s vs. Middle Tenn. I don’t fill out my bracket until after these play-in games anyway. That’s why the outcome matching bracket might change.

  8. ptiernan says:

    I’ll say this, Spartie…Saint Louis has sneaky good efficiency numbers. And let’s not forget: their playing for a higher purpose, what with the death of coach Rick Majerus.

  9. ptiernan says:

    Agreed on Middle Tennessee and St. Mary’s. I’m not sold on Memphis. We know this: some 10-12 will crash the Sweet 16. Which one?

    • Tom says:

      Just in this bracket, or across the board?

      I think Ole Miss has a chance — Marshall Henderson gets all the attention, but they’ve got some criminally underrated bigs in Murphy Holloway and Reginald Buckner. I think they’re more athletic than either Wisconsin or K-State, and if they can get those two into a track meet we might see them in the Sweet 16.

  10. ptiernan says:

    Higher Purpose = Coach’s PASE*Mortality Rate / Team Age.

    • SpartanHoops1 says:

      :)

      • cderrick77584 says:

        Classic.

        It didn’t work out as well for Wake Forest 2007-2008.

        Could you go back in look at the team age for me Pete? They did lose Kyle Visser so I am assuming they weren’t as old as this Saint Louis team.

  11. ptiernan says:

    There was no 2007-8 Wake Forest team. The 2009 team, however, was a 2.2. The 2005 team was a 3.2

  12. Dave Wallace says:

    Does anyone else see a Saint Louis v Louisville Sweet 16 matchup? I’m basing it mostly on what I’ve seen of Saint Luis thus far. Thoughts?

    • John says:

      Can you sell me on St. Louis?
      I’m so tempted to take NM State. Sim Bhullar looks like he could be hard to contest with in a tournament style. I’m having flashbacks to 2006 with 13 seed Bradley and Patrick O’Bryant.

      And with a replacement coach I’m no certain they will be able to make a run.

      Someone convince me that St. Louis is for real and that they won’t be upset. Please.

      • FapDaddy says:

        I thought the same thing initially but NMSU has a lot of trouble with turnovers and barely hits any 3 pointers (only 4 per game). Two very important categories for underdogs.

        Meanwhile, Saint Louis is very efficient on both sides of the ball and have one of the best turnover margins in the country.

  13. Andy Morgosh says:

    I’m very interested to know what you guys think about the lower half of this bracket. I can’t figure out what to do in the Creighton Cincinnati game for starters. Anyone have a good stat or two for that one? And second, if Creighton wins, can they knock off Duke? Duke is interesting because they have the coach experience but 1) they play bad defense for a two seed and 2) they actually get outrebounded??!! a danger sign for two seeds. Does this mean only Cincinnati can take advantage and pull off the upset?

    • Lou Nargi says:

      Creighton is avg defensively, which could be a relief for the Bearcats offense that has struggled mightily in the Big East. Conversely, Creighton rarely faces the kind of defensive pressure that Cincy will provide.

    • Jon Scalf says:

      Based on upset rules, Cincy qualifies for an elite eight run!!! On top of that Duke and Mich St are underachievers. Mich St. just barely though. If Mich St. is an underachiever Cincy wont even see them at in the sweet 16.

      However, I’m not sure at all what to do with Cincy in the first round, haha. I’m leaning towards a win, followed atleast by an upset over Duke.

  14. Alex says:

    What about the Mizzou/Colorado State matchup? Anybody have any opinions on that one? I have Mizzou pegged simply for one reason. Closer to home. This is such a toss-up.

    • Nick says:

      Its bracket suicide, but here is what is more scary…according to the Seed Guide Mizzou would have a 50% chance to beat Louisville if they won in the first round. They have an average scoring margin more than 7.5 points a game, have won between five and eight of their last ten games, and have a veteran starting five, averaging at least two senior and three junior starters

      Just sayin…

      • Ryan Tressler says:

        By the same model, Louisville is not the typical 1 seed victim, so it really isn’t purely a 50% chance . . . I did find that interesting though when I did the model, def something to keep note of if you are feeling adventurous.

        • Ryan Tressler says:

          UNC also fits the 8 seed profile for the 1-8 matchup, but alas, Kansas also does not fit the profile of a top seed victim

    • Lou Nargi says:

      Colo St’s strength (rebounding) could be matched by Bowers and Oriahki’s boardwork. Man for man Mizou will have better athletes.

  15. Alex says:

    Creighton is a one man show and probably the best scorer in NCAA, but Cincy has played exceptionally well as of late and has a defense that can stifle Creighton. Anyone else think Cincy upsets Creighton or am I doing wishful thinking?

    • ptiernan says:

      Cinti exceptionally well of late? Maybe you see something I don’t. Four Ws in last 10.

      • Alex says:

        Look Cincy has a stifling defense and if they can defend the J’s and neutralize McDermott I dont see why DEF cant win over OFFENSE and not for nothing CINCY has a team that can run with Creighton easily.

  16. Gary Diny says:

    SO my wife thinks I am nuts…looking at spreadsheets to sort out the BB games between college age kids. My response is I enjoy the numbers and looking at data, thus she is happy that I am happy. Now for me to be truly happy I need resolution.

    Kansas ST vs Wisconsin (note I live iin Madison WI and went to Wisconsin). Practically rip my eyes out watching them play. But they pull games out they have no business winning. I can see either team giving Gonzaga a great game and pulling the upset. Thoughts welcomed. I am leaning toward KSU.

  17. Jay says:

    I’m surprised nobody is talking about Oklahoma St. Anyone fancy them for a run to the E8?

    • ptiernan says:

      I’ve been thinking long and hard about OK State vs. Saint Louis. Of course, an Oregon upset is a chic Cinderella pick.

      • John says:

        Funny you mention that…I want so badly to not have Louisville in my final four.(Contrarian habit)

        The only thing I can’t get past is how well Pitino performs in the tournament as a 1 seed. He just does not lose before the elite 8.

  18. PH says:

    My Midwest outlook for what its worth.
    – These top 4 teams look super solid so I don’t see an upset here. In fact there is a large drop off between St Louis and Okie State.
    – Duke has lost only once with Kelly and already beat Ville on a neutral court. Its a toss up between the two.
    – St Louis is very impressive winning the A-10 convincingly. A win over Ville would not shock.

    • ptiernan says:

      As I’ve said before, Paul, Saint Louis is playing with a higher purpose. Muliply Pythag*Coach PASE+1/Age then add 2 games for the Majerus factor. :-)

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