The United States Basketball Writers Association finally announced their All-America team. This allows me to complete the final model. Look for an updated model PDF later tonight. It will include member Ryan Tressler’s work on the old Seed Matchup and Upset/Toss-up models I used to provide. Keep your eye out for that; Ryan tells me there’s an absolute shocker in one of those models. Here’s who the USBWA thinks are the best players in the land:
FIRST TEAM
- Trey Burke, Michigan
- Doug McDermott, Creighton
- Victor Oladipo, Indiana
- Kelly Olynyk, Gonzaga
- Otto Porter, Georgetown
SECOND TEAM
- Ben McLemore, Kansas
- Mason Plumlee, Duke
- Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State
- Jeff Withey, Kansas
- Cody Zeller, Indiana
Peter Tiernan has been using stats to analyze March Madness for 22 years. He writes for 
What time tonight are we looking for the region by region forums to open up and all of the models to be done by?
Jeff Withey (Kansas) doesn’t rebound well and his offensive skills are weak. Is he on the 2nd team because he averages 4 blocks per game?
Steve – I can think of three players off the top of my head that are more deserving: Smith of Louisville, Wolters of South Dakota State, Henderson of Ole Miss (yes…he’s a jerk, but what a sniper). Maybe even Craft or Thomas of Ohio State. Don’t get me wrong: Withey’s disruptive defensively. But All-American? Um…
just for fun i could have sworn i saw a stat a few years ago that said no team has won the tournament without an all american on it. but maybe i’m going crazy. that’s no bueno for louisville
Paul – Six teams won without an All-American: 1985 Villanova, 1986 Louisville (Ellison came to fame in the dance), 1997 Arizona, 1998 Kentucky, 2006 Florida (Noah did what Ellison did) and 2008 Kansas.
When you have the depth that some of those teams had, who needs all-americans . . . Arizona had Bibby, Michael Dickerson, Miles Simon, Jason Terry . . . Kentucky had Scott Padgett, Nazr Mohammed, Wayne Turner, Jamaal Magliore, Jeff Sheppard in his senior year , they had Michael Bradley that year before he transferred to Villanova . . .Florida was absolutely stacked (and young), Noah, Horford, Corey Brewer, Taurean Grenn, Chris Richard
Great points, Ryan. If you rattled those line-ups off from memory, I am officially frightened. BTW – where are you from? Who are you rooting for?
I’m from PA, originally from near Harrisburg, but now I live near Philadelphia . . . My team is always Penn State, so come tournament time, I can root for whoever I want, haha. This year, I was pulling for Bucknell before the seeding, but I also like Butler a lot, so I don’t know who I want there anymore, haha. Muscala is great. I usually pull for most of the Big Ten schools (except for Ohio State, I have irrational negative feelings towards them, which I am sure you relate to living in Michigan, haha). I also like Syracuse and Louisville a lot.
Well, Ryan, I used to live in Paoli outside of Philly way back in the sixties. (I’m showing my age.) Then I moved to Pittsburgh during the Clemente years. Still have a special place in my heart for the Pennsylvania schools.
Oh wow, yea I live West Chester, so I am probably about ten miles away from Paoli
I noticed in your bracket on CBS you chose Oregon to upset Oklahoma State. Is this a gut feeling or do you have statistics that lean Oregon’s way? I did some analysis on this one and I found very little pointing Oregon’s way.
Michael – I tend to go with my gut on the CBS expert bracket. The brackets in the Bracket Lab are based purely on stats. But I like to go with a few hunches. The efficiency numbers say Oregon is much better than your average 12. And I hadn’t picked many upsets.
I agree with Pete on this one. I also love Ole Miss over Wisconsin too. As for the 13 seed over 4, it is VERY tough. Many so-called “experts” claims that Syracuse is the one to be exit. Montana’s leading scorer is out, so that’s one way of saying no. My gut tells me Kansas State is the ultimate victim.
Pete, one quick question. Florida is a tough team for me to crack. They have great efficiency and Pythag but have not looked impressive at all versus tournament competition, besides a few games at home (and most of those were earlier in the season). Is there any precedent for a team like this and any thoughts on what we can expect from them?
I can tell you a little about Florida. They are a guard-oriented team for the second straight year; have a great collection of guards. They only have three men in their roster that goes on the post (Young (has the tendency to foul a lot), Yeguete, and Murphy (although Murphy spent too much time on the outside). Issue is their interior. Lately, I see that Florida wears down at the second half, not a good sign. So the question is: who can beat Florida in the South region? Minnesota can, but they are lacking motivation (pointed by Pete). To beat Florida, you need to have offensive firepower (that’s why early, I had them on the alert versus Northwestern State Demons) (check the lost to Arkansas, they lead in field goal in the SEC at one point). Last season Florida’s team had even more offense in Beal and Walker, but this team’s offense is sound.