In an attempt to limit the number of emails I get tomorrow night, I figured I’d let you know what to expect after the brackets tomorrow:
- I will furiously fill out the rest of the monster Excel sheet that everyone clamors for. It will get posted to the “Tips+” section, which is only accessible to Insiders. I usually post an early version, then a complete version. A few stats (RPI, SOS and USBWA All-American picks off the top of my head) are slow to update Sunday, and come in Monday. No sense waiting for them to deliver you the goods.
- Then I go into bracket model crunching. This year, you’ll be getting seven models. I was only going to do five because of my commitments to CBSSports.com this year—that’s why the price is 10 bucks this year. But it creeped up to seven. You won’t get my gut, upset/toss-up, combined PASE, seed matchups, contrarian of keeper brackets. I eliminated these either because they were hunches (gut, contrarian and keeper), didn’t perform all that well (combined PASE), or took too much time to generate (upset/toss and seed matchup). Here’s what you will get:
- Model 1: KenPom Efficiency
- Model 2: Final Four/Champ Rules
- Model 3: Outcome Matching
- Model 4: Efficiency and Coaching
- Model 5: Pulse Check Stats
- Model 6: Factor PASE
- Model 7: Higher-seed Baseline
I hope to crank at least four of these out by 2am EST Monday morning. The rest will be furnished on Monday. Depending on how the next few days go, I may deliver a final Keeper bracket on Tuesday or Wednesday. But I don’t want to commit to it, because…
- After spinning out the models, I will be occupied with providing deliverables to CBS—team write-ups, bracket strategies (I just pick three from above…but they want them in article form). Then I’ve got radio interviews, podcasts with CampusInsiders (check ‘em out: www.campusinsiders.com) and a big “Bracket Lab” video program with the CBS crew—Parrish, Goodman and Palm. That takes me up to 4pm, Monday night.
- I’ll have a backlog of blogs to write after that. First, I’ll complete any of the outstanding models. Then I’ll probably check out the Quality Curve to see how it looks with the actual seeding baked in. That will give us a good sense of the type of tourney we’ll be looking at. (My guess: normal one seed dominance…with batsh*t craziness everywhere else.) Then I’ll do a series on how this dance compares to history.
- Super Insider Ryan (you listening, Tress?) had a great idea. The old site would get these huge forum threads. I figured what I’d do is throw out a topic in the blog—maybe by region (I’ll divide into eight)—and get some good conversation going.
- If anyone is in the Ann Arbor area on Tuesday, come join the WTKA group, John Bacon and me for our Bracket Science Night. You don’t need to be a bracketbrain to drink good beer.
- Collapse. (Not from the beer, though. That would be wrong.)