For anyone in the Ann Arbor area, this promises to be a fun night. Can’t wait to talk hoops with Sam, Ira and John Bacon. And, of course, I just might have to have me a couple of them Faustian Stouts!
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Peter Tiernan has been using stats to analyze March Madness for 22 years. He writes for CBSSports.com and has also contributed to ESPN.com and SI.com. His insights into the NCAA basketball tournament can help you build a better bracket.Sign-up questions? Click here.
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Pete
I am writing about your update the other day on the 8 factors which all Champions have, and also about the two additional stats you are looking at from Ken Pomeroy, adjusted offensive and adjusted defensive efficiency. I have a printout I took of Ken’s stats which is dated Mach 14, 2011, which is the day after all tournament and regular season games, i..e. the last update before the tournament started. UConn (eventual National Champ) on that day had a 21 rating for Adj. Offence and 31 rating for Adj. Defence. Both of these are higher than the thresholds you identified which all National Champs have had in the Ken Pom era – 17 for adj. offence and 25 for adj, defence.
So what gives?
I realized two days ago that I rank the OE and DE against the tourney field, so UConn was the 17th best offensive in the field and 25th best defense. That changes the thresholds a little. Next analysis, I’ll use the 21/31 breakdown. The fact is, UConn is the outlier that pushes those numbers so high. Thanks for pointing this out.