No clear pool winner among 16 models

After the Sweet 16, here’s where the models stand.

  • Coaching+Efficiency 93.3% – ARIZONA
  • Nate Silver 87.8%
  • Baseline 84%
  • Keeper 73.5% – FLORIDA
  • Pulse Check 73.5%
  • Upset/Toss-Up 73.5% – FLORIDA
  • Seed Match-ups 73.5%
  • From the Gut 63.3% – FLORIDA
  • Final Four/Champ 63.3% – ARIZONA
  • Contrarian 41.9%
  • KenPom 41.9%
  • ESPN BPI 37.0% – ARIZONA
  • Brackomatic 28.3% – MICHIGAN STATE
  • Outcome Match 24.5%
  • Factor PASE 18.1%
  • Billion Dollar 15.5% – FLORIDA

The top model heading into the Elite Eight is Coaching+Efficiency, which uses a combination of coaching performance and KenPom numbers to arrive at bracket picks. The model retains three of its four Final Four teams, (Florida, Arizona and Michigan State), losing a shot only at the Midwest, where Louisville fell.

The Keeper bracket is the next closest model with a champion still in the running. It could leap into the top spot with a Gator championship. Eight of the models still have their champ in the running, as noted by the CAPS above. Four of them like Florida, three Arizona and one MSU.

Interestingly, three of the four best models from last year are among the worst this year. ESPN BPI, Outcome Matching and KenPom ranked second through fourth in 2013. This year, not so good. Nate Silver fans will be happy to know that he had the best model of 2013 and has the second best model of 2014. Of course, Nate picked Louisville as his champion, so his chance for a big percentile jump is limited.

If I focus on the brackets done by a system, the average performance is 52.7%. That ties for the second worst tourney in the ten years I’ve posted models. Only the craziness of 2011’s UConn run was worse. I suppose Coaching+Efficiency and the Keeper bracket might have you in the running for your pool, depending on who cuts down the nets. But odds are, none of these models are currently “pool-win worthy.”

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