Monthly Archives: March 2014

Coaching fortunes will change after the 2014 tourney

When the dust settles on the 2014 dance, we’re likely to see dramatic changes in the performance rankings of the active coaches. Some coaches, like perennial overachiever Tom Izzo and newcomers Archie Miller and Kevin Ollie, will post big PASE … Continue reading

Posted in Coach Ratings | 1 Comment

Basic champ check could fail for first time in 14 years

With just three teams who meet basic champ criteria left in the dance—and all of them slated to play each other before the finals—the streak of 13 straight predictions is in jeopardy. Heading into the dance, there were six squads … Continue reading

Posted in Champ Credentials | 47 Comments

No clear pool winner among 16 models

After the Sweet 16, here’s where the models stand. Coaching+Efficiency 93.3% – ARIZONA Nate Silver 87.8% Baseline 84% Keeper 73.5% – FLORIDA Pulse Check 73.5% Upset/Toss-Up 73.5% – FLORIDA Seed Match-ups 73.5% From the Gut 63.3% – FLORIDA Final Four/Champ … Continue reading

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Stephenson on Coach K and late-career slumps

This email from Insider Tom Stephenson is worth posting in full. Great observations on how many coaches tend to underachieve as they near retirement. Tom mentioned some legends who retired at the top of their tourney game. I’ll add Rollie … Continue reading

Posted in Coach Ratings | 8 Comments

Round 2, Day 2 Forum

Credit Stanford for a great game plan–and blame Wiggins all you want for a poor game. But Bill Self did not do his star any favors by making him hang out on the wing, out of the action. He could’ve … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Forums | 18 Comments

The Five Stages of Bracket Grief

Denial and Isolation: “What? Duke lost? No way. That’s got to be wrong.” Anger: “Damnit! Why the Hell did I pick them in the Final Four anyway!? Coach K did this on purpose to mess with me!” Bargaining: If only … Continue reading

Posted in General News | 19 Comments

A decade of Duke woes…

With its startling loss to Mercer, Duke has now fallen short of seed-projected win totals in eight of 10 tourneys. And they’ve added to their record as upset victims, with 11 crushing losses. The next most shocked team is Oklahoma, … Continue reading

Posted in Measuring Madness, Upset Spotting | 4 Comments

Round 1 Forum, Friday games: “POP” go the brackets!

Pop! That was the sound of millions of brackets getting busted across the land–including my Keeper bracket. The is the eighth year in 10 tourneys that Duke has failed to meet seed expectations. And Duke is the all-time victimized school, … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Forums | 47 Comments

2014 wrap-up: maddest dance, most upsets in 30 years

UConn’s victory over Kentucky on Monday made official what we already knew: this year’s tourney broke 30-year records for the highest level of unpredictability and most upsets. Before this year, the record Madometer reading was 20.8% deviation from perfect high-seed … Continue reading

Posted in General News, Measuring Madness | 60 Comments

Round 1 Forum, Thursday Games

Member BD suggested that I open a forum to discuss the results of each round. Good idea. So far, three models have pegged the two upsets: F4/Champ, Seed Match-ups and Upset/Toss-up. The Billion Dollar bracket is done. That was fun. … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Forums | 21 Comments