Monthly Archives: February 2014

Mythbuster #3: “To succeed in March, you need to be hot coming into the dance.”

I’ve heard three different basketball analysts this weekend proclaim, in one way or the other, that momentum was critical to tourney success. The value of pre-tournament momentum isn’t as clear-cut, however, as the pundits would lead you to believe. For … Continue reading

Posted in Mythbuster, Tourney Trends | 16 Comments

Tar Heels back on champ list, Louisville excels on champ efficiency tests

For the first time since early January, North Carolina has climbed back onto the basic champ list. Now nine teams meet the criteria that the last 13 champs have possessed: A one, two or three seed Member of a Power … Continue reading

Posted in Champ Credentials | 22 Comments

Mythbuster #2: “Defense wins championships.”

This year’s Super Bowl appeared to reconfirm the old axiom that defense trumps offense in championship games—at least on the gridiron. A few readers recently asked if this applied to the NCAA tourney and I promised to do a mythbuster … Continue reading

Posted in Key Factors, Mythbuster, Tourney Trends | 1 Comment

What a difference three weeks makes to the college hoops balance of power

Among the college hoops media, teams only seem to be as good or bad as their last couple games. (And, ironically, as I proofread this, Boston College shocks Syracuse.) Even fans paying close attention don’t tend to look much further … Continue reading

Posted in Tourney Trends | 7 Comments

Wisconsin rejoins champ list, Florida owns best efficiency numbers

Two weeks ago, Wisconsin dropped off the champ list. This week, they’re back on. Now eight teams meet the criteria that the last 13 champs have possessed: A one, two or three seed Member of a Power conference: ACC, Big … Continue reading

Posted in Champ Credentials | 10 Comments

Great follow-up to post on snake-bit coaches

Insider Tom Stephenson sent me an excellent analysis of old snake-bit coaches who got the monkey off their backs and made it to the Elite Eight. Here’s what he wrote: Interesting note: here’s a list of snake-bit coaches who have … Continue reading

Posted in Coach Ratings | Leave a comment

Strange stretch-run conundrums

With a month until Selection Sunday and fewer than 10 games left for most teams, the 2014 bracket seems to be coming more into focus—if you don’t look too closely. Undefeated squads like Syracuse and Wichita State would seem to … Continue reading

Posted in Team Ratings, Tourney Trends | Leave a comment

Revisiting BPI versus KenPom versus YourMom

A couple member comments last week compelled me to reinvestigate the value of BPI and KenPom in predicting tourney outcomes. This is an update to a post I submitted about a year ago. Last year, ESPN devised a new system … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Tools, General News | 7 Comments

Mythbuster #1: “The tougher the schedule, the better the tourney.”

Remember back in the 2010-11 season, when Tom Izzo scheduled the world’s most grueling run of non-conferences games? The Spartans played Connecticut, Washington, Duke, Syracuse and Texas. They were 8-4 before they had even started the meat grinder of Big … Continue reading

Posted in Key Factors, Mythbuster, Tourney Trends | 5 Comments

How do you factor this year’s scoring binge into your bracket picks?

Numbers don’t lie. They just don’t tell you what they really mean. There’s no question that college basketball is higher scoring than it’s been in a long time. But what’s not clear is how that should influence your bracket picks. … Continue reading

Posted in Tourney Trends | 13 Comments