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Peter Tiernan has been using stats to analyze March Madness for 22 years. He writes for CBSSports.com and has also contributed to ESPN.com and SI.com. His insights into the NCAA basketball tournament can help you build a better bracket.Sign-up questions? Click here.
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Monthly Archives: February 2013
A new set of champ rules to consider
After UConn won the 2011 tourney, I adjusted my champ rules to factor in the trend toward low scoring in college basketball. My scoring threshold for champions used to be 75 points a game. The fact is, 24 of the … Continue reading
Posted in Champ Credentials, General News
2 Comments
Why I ignore the RPI—and you should too
Over the last couple weeks, I’ve made a few side comments about the irrelevance of the Ratings Percentage Index, or RPI. I know that the NCAA Selection Committee uses the metric, to some extent, to determine who makes the dance … Continue reading
Posted in General News, Tourney Trends
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Few changes on traditional champ list—but two meet KenPom thresholds
While the AP Top 20 had its share of shuffling this week, the list of teams that meet tourney champion credentials barely changed. For those who haven’t been following our weekly “champ check,” here’s the skinny: the last 12 champions … Continue reading
Posted in Champ Credentials
3 Comments
BPI versus KenPom versus your Mom…
This year, ESPN has devised yet another system for rating college basketball teams. They tout it as an improvement over the RPI system that the Selection Committee uses to help determine seeding and the KenPom efficiency rankings, which remove game … Continue reading
Posted in General News, Tourney Trends
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Are we headed over the quality cliff?
It’s been nearly a month since I checked how the KenPom Top 20 quality curve compared to the curves of the sanest tourney in 2007 and maddest one in 2011. For those who haven’t read the previous posts, there’s a … Continue reading
Posted in Measuring Madness
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Dominant conferences often disappoint in the tourney
There’s no question that the Big 10 is the dominant conference in college basketball this season. Five Big 10 teams are in the AP Top 20 and seven are in the KenPom top 30. The conference also leads in TV … Continue reading
Posted in General News, Tourney Trends
11 Comments
Seven teams make champ list—but are their offenses prolific enough?
After a week that saw volatile changes in the AP Top 25—with Miami, Michigan State and Kansas rising as Duke, Michigan and Ohio State fell—you’d think there would be big changes in the list of teams with champion credentials. In … Continue reading
Posted in Champ Credentials, Tourney Trends
4 Comments
A taxonomy of coaches: eight classes of experience and success
I’ve done several blogs about the tourney performance of individual coaches. But in the development of guidelines for picking toss-up and upset games, I tend to think about coaches in groups. You’ve probably read something from me about rookie coaches … Continue reading
Posted in Coach Ratings
2 Comments
Anatomy of an Upset
Over the last week, I’ve added two new features for Insiders. You can find them under the “TIPS+” section. The first was about key performance indicators for seed classes, and the most recent is about how to spot the most … Continue reading
Posted in Upset Spotting
6 Comments
Are a$$-whoopings warning signs?
In the wake of Michigan’s meltdown in East Lansing last Tuesday and the Duke demolition in Miami, a couple of readers have asked whether tourney champions have ever suffered such thorough beat-downs in their pre-dance games. The answer is yes—and … Continue reading
Posted in Champ Credentials, General News, Team Ratings
6 Comments