Monthly Archives: January 2013

CampusInsiders Podcast: Champ check, momentum and coaching performance

I did my weekly podcast with CampusInsiders this week. They made me explain PASE in 30 seconds. I stumbled my way through that, then talked about the value of momentum and coaching. Check it out:

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Quality Curve conforming to average…but what’s with Florida?

It’s been about three weeks since I evaluated how the KenPom performance ratings of this year’s top teams compares to their historical counterparts. If you’ll recall, there’s a connection between the quality of the top teams and tourney unpredictability. Basically, … Continue reading

Posted in Measuring Madness, Tourney Trends | 9 Comments

Eight teams make champ list—Gophers and Buckeyes drop off

Last week, 10 teams had the stats to be champs. But a lot has happened in the last seven days. Many of the nation’s top 20 squads suffered tough losses—Duke got blown out by Miami, Louisville dropped their third straight … Continue reading

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What is baseline bracket prediction performance?

I’m here to tell you right now that nobody has a failsafe system for predicting the NCAA basketball tourney. As Nate Silver might say, filling out your bracket is an exercise in assessing probabilities. You’re not going to build a … Continue reading

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The impact of momentum on tourney performance is a tricky thing

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: “To succeed in March, you need to be hot coming into the tourney.” College basketball analysts say the darnedest things. The problem is that most of them are either half-truths…or patently false. … Continue reading

Posted in Tourney Trends | 5 Comments

Weekly Podcast for CampusInsiders

Just a quick note to let everyone know that I’ll be doing a weekly Podcast for CampusInsiders. The first one aired today. You can see it at I covered the the champ credentials, mentioned some of the teams that fell … Continue reading

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Ten teams have the stats to be champs—but six have inside track

It’s been two weeks since the last time I did a champ check. In that time, the final four unbeaten teams tasted defeat and a host of other top teams got upset. Despite all the turmoil, though, the same 10 … Continue reading

Posted in Champ Credentials | 10 Comments

The fate of over- and under-seeded teams

I’ve been saying for years that the single greatest determinant of a team’s tourney fate is its seed. If you knew nothing else, you could still fill out a reasonable bracket. But teams don’t always get a seed that reflects … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Tools, Tourney Trends | 2 Comments

Are Florida, Louisville and Michigan really that great?

After this year’s dance, I’ll have ten years of KenPom efficiency numbers in my Bracket Science database. That doesn’t exactly consistute a huge sample size, especially when compared to the 29 years I’ll have for other attributes like coaching, momentum, … Continue reading

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Possession-based data say Pitt’s a champ, but Louisville isn’t

Ken Pomeroy has been publishing tempo-free statistics for nine years now and basketball analysts are relying more and more on them to gain insights into the college game. If you follow this blog , you know that KenPom stats are … Continue reading

Posted in Basic Concepts, Champ Credentials | 8 Comments