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Peter Tiernan has been using stats to analyze March Madness for 22 years. He writes for CBSSports.com and has also contributed to ESPN.com and SI.com. His insights into the NCAA basketball tournament can help you build a better bracket.Sign-up questions? Click here.
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Monthly Archives: January 2013
CampusInsiders Podcast: Champ check, momentum and coaching performance
I did my weekly podcast with CampusInsiders this week. They made me explain PASE in 30 seconds. I stumbled my way through that, then talked about the value of momentum and coaching. Check it out: http://campusinsiders.com/videos/2129913797001
Posted in Champ Credentials, General News
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Quality Curve conforming to average…but what’s with Florida?
It’s been about three weeks since I evaluated how the KenPom performance ratings of this year’s top teams compares to their historical counterparts. If you’ll recall, there’s a connection between the quality of the top teams and tourney unpredictability. Basically, … Continue reading
Posted in Measuring Madness, Tourney Trends
9 Comments
Eight teams make champ list—Gophers and Buckeyes drop off
Last week, 10 teams had the stats to be champs. But a lot has happened in the last seven days. Many of the nation’s top 20 squads suffered tough losses—Duke got blown out by Miami, Louisville dropped their third straight … Continue reading
Posted in Champ Credentials
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What is baseline bracket prediction performance?
I’m here to tell you right now that nobody has a failsafe system for predicting the NCAA basketball tourney. As Nate Silver might say, filling out your bracket is an exercise in assessing probabilities. You’re not going to build a … Continue reading
Posted in Basic Concepts, Bracket Tools, General News
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The impact of momentum on tourney performance is a tricky thing
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: “To succeed in March, you need to be hot coming into the tourney.” College basketball analysts say the darnedest things. The problem is that most of them are either half-truths…or patently false. … Continue reading
Posted in Tourney Trends
5 Comments
Weekly Podcast for CampusInsiders
Just a quick note to let everyone know that I’ll be doing a weekly Podcast for CampusInsiders. The first one aired today. You can see it at http://campusinsiders.com/videos/2114710174001 I covered the the champ credentials, mentioned some of the teams that fell … Continue reading
Posted in Champ Credentials, General News
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Ten teams have the stats to be champs—but six have inside track
It’s been two weeks since the last time I did a champ check. In that time, the final four unbeaten teams tasted defeat and a host of other top teams got upset. Despite all the turmoil, though, the same 10 … Continue reading
Posted in Champ Credentials
10 Comments
The fate of over- and under-seeded teams
I’ve been saying for years that the single greatest determinant of a team’s tourney fate is its seed. If you knew nothing else, you could still fill out a reasonable bracket. But teams don’t always get a seed that reflects … Continue reading
Posted in Bracket Tools, Tourney Trends
2 Comments
Are Florida, Louisville and Michigan really that great?
After this year’s dance, I’ll have ten years of KenPom efficiency numbers in my Bracket Science database. That doesn’t exactly consistute a huge sample size, especially when compared to the 29 years I’ll have for other attributes like coaching, momentum, … Continue reading
Posted in General News, Team Ratings
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Possession-based data say Pitt’s a champ, but Louisville isn’t
Ken Pomeroy has been publishing tempo-free statistics for nine years now and basketball analysts are relying more and more on them to gain insights into the college game. If you follow this blog , you know that KenPom stats are … Continue reading
Posted in Basic Concepts, Champ Credentials
8 Comments