Monthly Archives: December 2012

Seven teams have the basic champ credentials

In my November 17 blog, only a couple games into the season, I did my first champ check of the year. I evaluated the AP Top 20 against four of the eight stats that the last 12 champions have possessed. … Continue reading

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Using possession-based data to forecast the next champion

For the last four or five years, I’ve been using a set of statistics to forecast the teams most likely to cut down the nets in March. Some of those stats, like coaching experience and conference affiliation, can be applied … Continue reading

Posted in Champ Credentials | 1 Comment

The top 15 upsets of the 64-team era (10 to 6)

In my last post, I started counting down the top 15 upsets of the 64-team era, which began in 1985, 28 tourneys ago. Since then, a team seeded four or more positions lower than its opponent has downed the favorite … Continue reading

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Counting down the top 15 upsets of the 64-team era (11 to 15)

The last three tournaments have been the most upset-laden in 27 years. In 2010, we saw a ninth-seeded Northern Iowa squad knock off top seed Kansas. The next year, 11 seed VCU shocked the Jayhawks. And last year, on the … Continue reading

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Do you really need a great guard to go deep in the dance?

When it comes to tourney punditry, the proclamation that “great guards rule the dance” might be even more pervasive than “defense wins championships.” If that’s true, then fans of Michigan, with Trey Burke, and Syracuse, with Michael Carter-Williams, have to … Continue reading

Posted in Tourney Trends | 2 Comments

Half the top ten teams lack the balance of overachievers

Back on December 2, I posted a blog asking whether offense or defense mattered more for a deep tourney run. I came to the conclusion that, while defense is important for seed overachievement, winning the title requires a strong offense. … Continue reading

Posted in Tourney Trends | 4 Comments

Bracketmaster basics

The Bracketmaster gives users a window into the database I’ve been building for 23 years on tourney stats. It enables you to submit queries to the database using any combination of 18 statistics. Then it returns the round-by-round record of … Continue reading

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Efficiency numbers help determine tourney craziness

In my “Madness Measuring” blog post on December 18, I argued that Pythag efficiency data can help you assess the relative predictability of a tournament. If you compare the Pythag values of the top 20 most efficient teams to their … Continue reading

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The law of the snake-bitten coach

Long-time Bracket Science insiders may recall a few tourneys back when I had this irrational obsession with advancing Pitt in my personal bracket. The obsession went on for at least three dances, from 2008 to 2010. No amount of statistical … Continue reading

Posted in Coach Ratings | 11 Comments

Will the tourney keep getting crazier?

The 2010, 2011 and 2012 tourneys have marked the maddest three-year stretch of the 28-year, 64-team era. They came hard on the heels of the sanest three-year period of the NCAA tournament. How do we know that 2007-09 was the … Continue reading

Posted in Measuring Madness, Tourney Trends | 5 Comments