Category Archives: Tourney Trends

Four facts about the tourney field

Now that the final 64 teams have been set for the dance, I looked at the averages for the tourney field. Four things stood out: The average coach has been to the Elite Eight 1.52 times. That’s the highest in … Continue reading

Posted in Tourney Trends | 1 Comment

Which region is most likely to blow up?

Yesterday, I attempted to identify which past dance the 2014 tourney most resembled. Based on the seed quality curves, it looked like 2006 and 2011 were the closest comparisons. Both of those dances were particularly mad. 2006 featured the George … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Tools, Measuring Madness, Tourney Trends | 16 Comments

Which past tourney does 2014 most resemble?

Late last night, well into my second glass of wine, my wife gave me a bracket science challenge. When Michelle asks a question about tourney analytics, I listen—not just because she makes me a big pump pot of coffee every … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Tools, Measuring Madness, Tourney Trends | 21 Comments

Quality curve suggests trouble for two seeds in second round, one seeds in Sweet 16

A few weeks back, I took the new KenPom data using his “mismatch-free” formula and compared the average efficiency values of the top 13 seeds for the chalkiest dance of the 64-team era (2007, 4.1% Madometer reading), the craziest dance … Continue reading

Posted in Tourney Trends | 24 Comments

So you want to win that billion-dollar bracket…

As I’ve been crunching the team numbers in anticipation of the bracket announcement (nine teams to go!), that Quicken Loans billion-dollar bracket has been rattling around in my brain. Part of the reason is that the digital marketing company helping … Continue reading

Posted in Basic Concepts, Tourney Trends, Upset Spotting | 22 Comments

Mythbuster #7: “Seeding doesn’t matter anymore in the tournament”

I said that I wasn’t going to write another post before Selection Sunday. Then “Around the Horn” had a debate on whether getting a one seed was all that important. And later in the night, some other analyst proclaimed that … Continue reading

Posted in Mythbuster, Tourney Trends | 7 Comments

Mythbuster #4: “You need a great guard to go deep in the dance.”

Over the next two weeks, you’ll hear a lot of noise about how important having a great guard is to March Madness success. Someone will invoke Trey Burke and show his shot against Kansas. You’ll hear Kemba Walker’s name. They’ll … Continue reading

Posted in Mythbuster, Tourney Trends | 8 Comments

Mythbuster #3: “To succeed in March, you need to be hot coming into the dance.”

I’ve heard three different basketball analysts this weekend proclaim, in one way or the other, that momentum was critical to tourney success. The value of pre-tournament momentum isn’t as clear-cut, however, as the pundits would lead you to believe. For … Continue reading

Posted in Mythbuster, Tourney Trends | 16 Comments

Mythbuster #2: “Defense wins championships.”

This year’s Super Bowl appeared to reconfirm the old axiom that defense trumps offense in championship games—at least on the gridiron. A few readers recently asked if this applied to the NCAA tourney and I promised to do a mythbuster … Continue reading

Posted in Key Factors, Mythbuster, Tourney Trends | 1 Comment

What a difference three weeks makes to the college hoops balance of power

Among the college hoops media, teams only seem to be as good or bad as their last couple games. (And, ironically, as I proofread this, Boston College shocks Syracuse.) Even fans paying close attention don’t tend to look much further … Continue reading

Posted in Tourney Trends | 7 Comments