Category Archives: General News

No clear pool winner among 16 models

After the Sweet 16, here’s where the models stand. Coaching+Efficiency 93.3% – ARIZONA Nate Silver 87.8% Baseline 84% Keeper 73.5% – FLORIDA Pulse Check 73.5% Upset/Toss-Up 73.5% – FLORIDA Seed Match-ups 73.5% From the Gut 63.3% – FLORIDA Final Four/Champ … Continue reading

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The Five Stages of Bracket Grief

Denial and Isolation: “What? Duke lost? No way. That’s got to be wrong.” Anger: “Damnit! Why the Hell did I pick them in the Final Four anyway!? Coach K did this on purpose to mess with me!” Bargaining: If only … Continue reading

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2014 wrap-up: maddest dance, most upsets in 30 years

UConn’s victory over Kentucky on Monday made official what we already knew: this year’s tourney broke 30-year records for the highest level of unpredictability and most upsets. Before this year, the record Madometer reading was 20.8% deviation from perfect high-seed … Continue reading

Posted in General News, Measuring Madness | 59 Comments

FINAL MODELS AVAILABLE!

I just posted the final 16 models, including my new Keeper Small Pool and Billion Dollar brackets. There has been one HUGE CHANGE overnight based on the results of last night’s Tennessee win. Louisville leapfrogged Arizona in KenPom Pythag efficiency … Continue reading

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MAILBAG: Answering some key reader questions…

Running a website about tourney bracket prediction is not a good business model. About two-thirds of my sign-ups come in a four-day period, from Selection Sunday to Wednesday. And with the sign-ups come a ton of questions and comments. I … Continue reading

Posted in General News | 20 Comments

Pretender candidates at every seed position

A few members have asked for me to identify teams that fit the Pretender criteria in the “Contender|Pretender” feature piece. I thought I saw that someone had done this in a blog comment, but couldn’t find it through the forest … Continue reading

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Update on bracket model building progress

I’ve now completed eight models for filling out your brackets: A – From the Gut 1 – KenPom 2 – Final Four/Champ 3 – Outcome Matching 5 – Pulse Check Stats 6 – Factor PASE 7 – Baseline 10 – … Continue reading

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Three more Excel nits

Readers have found a few more nits, two more significant than the other: The worksheet tab says “2013.” Fear not: it’s 2014 data In column K, I’ve got Oregon not going to last year’s dance. That number should be a … Continue reading

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First wave of bracket models available

Five models are now posted for Insiders under the TIPS+ section. Look for the “2014 Models (Wave 1)” link. This set includes: A – From the Gut 1 – KenPom 2 – Final Four/Champ 7 – Baseline 10 – ESPN … Continue reading

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Two mistakes in Excel sheet

I’m hoping this is the last such post, but if history is any indication, there may be a few adjustments to the seet. I noticed two errors–one minor and one pretty significant. The minor one if that I botched the … Continue reading

Posted in General News | 3 Comments