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Peter Tiernan has been using stats to analyze March Madness for 22 years. He writes for CBSSports.com and has also contributed to ESPN.com and SI.com. His insights into the NCAA basketball tournament can help you build a better bracket.Sign-up questions? Click here.
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Category Archives: General News
Model performance heading into the Final Four
I meant to post this earlier. Here are the results of the various strategies used to fill out the brackets for the 2013 tourney. The numbers refer to where the models fall by percentile in the ESPN Tourney Challenge. Each … Continue reading
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Model performance heading into Elite Eight
If you take a quick scan of the percentiles below, it looks like the stats models are performing pretty well this year. But the Elite Eight results will start to create separation among the 15 models. The biggest bracket killer … Continue reading
Posted in General News
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After the round of 32, the Madometer reads record 23.4% insanity
It’s official: the tourney has gone absolutely Coastal! After three upsets in the round of 32, punctuated with the FGCU surprise over San Diego State, we’re now up to 10 shockers. That’s just three away from the record of 13. … Continue reading
Posted in General News, Measuring Madness
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Mountain Worst…and coaching performance musings
Leading up to the 2013 tourney, I kept saying in all my interviews that the Mountain West teams would have to prove it to me before I went with them too deep in my bracket. After all, if you look … Continue reading
Posted in Coach Ratings, General News
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Model performance: nothing spectacular, but most still in running
Heading into the second day of the round of 32, most of the bracket models posted under the Tips+ section still have a fighting chance of success. All but two of the models are above the 60th percentile–and even Final … Continue reading
Posted in General News
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Fixing Boyle’s PASE
Member Mark S. pointed out that I had the wrong PASE for coach Tad Boyle. I had him at -.170, but that’s former St. Joseph’s coach Jim Boyle’s PASE. Tad’s is +.455. It wouldn’t have affected any of the brackets … Continue reading
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After day 1, the Madometer is on record pace
The Harvard upset of New Mexico turned what was going to be a fairly tame first day into record-pace madness. In the Bad Coaches Region, a couple of all-time underachievers did not disappoint–by reliably disappointing. Jamie Dixon can’t drop much … Continue reading
Posted in General News, Measuring Madness
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Change to Costanza bracket: push Miami to the title game
Long-time reader Vern L. found an error in the Costanza bracket. I picked Miami to beat Indiana in the Elite Eight…but Indiana to get to the championship. How Costanzish of me. It’s supposed to be Miami in the finals. (Not … Continue reading
Posted in General News
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Changing the Outcome Matching model if La Salle wins
In the Outcome Matching model, I’ve got Boise State beating Kansas State, because they were among the top five closest upset match-ups in KenPom efficiency differential. Boise State looks like they’re about to lose to La Salle. So what should … Continue reading
Posted in Bracket Tools, General News
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