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Peter Tiernan has been using stats to analyze March Madness for 22 years. He writes for CBSSports.com and has also contributed to ESPN.com and SI.com. His insights into the NCAA basketball tournament can help you build a better bracket.Sign-up questions? Click here.
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Category Archives: Bracket Tools
Changing the Outcome Matching model if La Salle wins
In the Outcome Matching model, I’ve got Boise State beating Kansas State, because they were among the top five closest upset match-ups in KenPom efficiency differential. Boise State looks like they’re about to lose to La Salle. So what should … Continue reading
Posted in Bracket Tools, General News
5 Comments
Four bonus models available!
I know what I said: only five models this season, tops. And now…well…there are 15. I’m out of control! As I mentioned in an earlier post, part of the reason I was able to deliver so many this year is … Continue reading
Posted in Bracket Tools, General News
13 Comments
2013 tourney trends: older teams, more experienced coaches…and mudfights!
Don’t you hate when people say, “This is a bit of an eye chart,” then proceed to explain said eye chart as if acknowledging it excuses the poor display? This is a bit of an eye chart. I just got … Continue reading
Posted in Bracket Tools, Tourney Trends
4 Comments
Binomial distribution of win possibilities by seed (yes, I’m a geek)
It’s easy to figure out the odds a 12 seed beating a five in a single match-up (33.9% by the way). But have you ever asked yourself, “What are the odds that three 12 seeds will spring upsets in the … Continue reading
Posted in Bracket Tools
6 Comments
Models 1-4 and 7 posted in Tips+ section
Five of the seven models I committed to are now posted under the Tips+ section. You’ll have KenPom, Final Four/Champ, Outcome Matching, Efficiency/Coaching and the Baseline Strategy. I’ll have at least three more…and I think I’m going to bow to … Continue reading
Posted in Bracket Tools, General News
13 Comments
Version 1 of Excel sheet is posted in Tips+ section
I think this is a record for posting the first version of the Excel spreadsheet. For Insiders, it’s available under the Tips+ section. This version is missing three key stats: the RPI and SOS data, as well as the All-American … Continue reading
Posted in Bracket Tools, General News
22 Comments
Champ Week Tourney Pulse Check
With less than a week before Selection Sunday—and most of the conference tourneys about to start—I figured I’d take the pulse of college basketball one last time before going into heavy number crunching mode. If you’ve read any of the … Continue reading
Posted in Bracket Tools, General News
4 Comments
For Insiders: Rules for picking your Final Four and champion
Bracket picking time is just two weeks away, and I’ve finished my analysis for the rules for picking your Final Four and champion. This is the annual Insider feature piece that I use to fill out one of my bracket … Continue reading
Posted in Bracket Tools, Champ Credentials
7 Comments
For Insiders: Top overachievement factors by seed class
In my February 9 blog post, I promised to provide a complete breakdown of the top overachievement factors for four classes of seeds. That post identified the top 15 KPI’s for one through 12 seeds. But the characteristics that lead … Continue reading
Posted in Bracket Tools, General News
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Analysis of key performance indicators coming for Insiders
If it seems like the Bracket Science blog has gone a little quiet lately, it’s because I’ve spent the last week crunching serious numbers to find the factors that correlate most to tourney overachievement. This involved nearly a thousand queries … Continue reading
Posted in Basic Concepts, Bracket Tools
2 Comments