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Category Archives: Bracket Tools
The toughest games to pick in the tourney are what I call toss-ups. Toss-up games pit teams within three seed positions against each other. About one-third of all tourney games in the 64-team era (615 of 1827, 34%) involve toss-up … Continue reading
Yesterday, I attempted to identify which past dance the 2014 tourney most resembled. Based on the seed quality curves, it looked like 2006 and 2011 were the closest comparisons. Both of those dances were particularly mad. 2006 featured the George … Continue reading
I hate to do this to everyone, but Insider Scott pointed out a mistake in the Outcome Matching that has a big impact on the upset victims in the second round and Sweet 16. Remember when I left Tennessee out … Continue reading
During last year’s dance, I fiddled around with an Excel model that order the teams by 10 key performance factors…then apply some level of “chaos” to the numbers as a way of simulating the crazy stuff that can happen in … Continue reading
Late last night, well into my second glass of wine, my wife gave me a bracket science challenge. When Michelle asks a question about tourney analytics, I listen—not just because she makes me a big pump pot of coffee every … Continue reading
I’m working through the rest of the models today. The first one on tap is “Pulse Check Stats.” That one uses some basic high-seed advancement rules, then observes the following numbers to pick the rest of the bracket: Some observations … Continue reading
The stat sheet is ready for Insiders to download. Go to the TIPS+ section and click on the “2014 Stats (Excel)” link. Happy bracketeering!
With less than a week before Selection Sunday—and most of the big conference tourneys about to start—I figured I’d take the pulse of college basketball one last time before going into heavy number crunching mode. If you’ve read any of … Continue reading
Throughout the upcoming week, as teams punch their dance tickets, I’ll be assembling the massive 80-stat Excel sheet that I make available to Insiders late on Selection Sunday evening. Then some time around midnight, I’ll start cranking out a set … Continue reading