Category Archives: Bracket Tools

Cheat sheet for making last-minute toss-up game decisions

The toughest games to pick in the tourney are what I call toss-ups. Toss-up games pit teams within three seed positions against each other. About one-third of all tourney games in the 64-team era (615 of 1827, 34%) involve toss-up … Continue reading

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Which region is most likely to blow up?

Yesterday, I attempted to identify which past dance the 2014 tourney most resembled. Based on the seed quality curves, it looked like 2006 and 2011 were the closest comparisons. Both of those dances were particularly mad. 2006 featured the George … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Tools, Measuring Madness, Tourney Trends | 16 Comments

ALERT! Major change to Outcome Matching #3 and two new models

I hate to do this to everyone, but Insider Scott pointed out a mistake in the Outcome Matching that has a big impact on the upset victims in the second round and Sweet 16. Remember when I left Tennessee out … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Tools | 3 Comments

Brack-o-Matic is here!

During last year’s dance, I fiddled around with an Excel model that order the teams by 10 key performance factors…then apply some level of “chaos” to the numbers as a way of simulating the crazy stuff that can happen in … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Tools | 18 Comments

Which past tourney does 2014 most resemble?

Late last night, well into my second glass of wine, my wife gave me a bracket science challenge. When Michelle asks a question about tourney analytics, I listen—not just because she makes me a big pump pot of coffee every … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Tools, Measuring Madness, Tourney Trends | 21 Comments

Pulse check of the tourney field based on 13 disqualifiers

I’m working through the rest of the models today. The first one on tap is “Pulse Check Stats.” That one uses some basic high-seed advancement rules, then observes the following numbers to pick the rest of the bracket: Some observations … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Tools | 13 Comments

80-stat Excel sheet on tourney field available

The stat sheet is ready for Insiders to download. Go to the TIPS+ section and click on the “2014 Stats (Excel)” link. Happy bracketeering!

Posted in Bracket Tools | 5 Comments

Champ Week Tourney Pulse Check of 40 Teams

With less than a week before Selection Sunday—and most of the big conference tourneys about to start—I figured I’d take the pulse of college basketball one last time before going into heavy number crunching mode. If you’ve read any of … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Tools, Team Ratings | 7 Comments

Quick view of bracket model performance in past nine tourneys

Throughout the upcoming week, as teams punch their dance tickets, I’ll be assembling the massive 80-stat Excel sheet that I make available to Insiders late on Selection Sunday evening. Then some time around midnight, I’ll start cranking out a set … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Tools | 14 Comments

Revisiting BPI versus KenPom versus YourMom

A couple member comments last week compelled me to reinvestigate the value of BPI and KenPom in predicting tourney outcomes. This is an update to a post I submitted about a year ago. Last year, ESPN devised a new system … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Tools, General News | 7 Comments