Category Archives: Upset Spotting

A decade of Duke woes…

With its startling loss to Mercer, Duke has now fallen short of seed-projected win totals in eight of 10 tourneys. And they’ve added to their record as upset victims, with 11 crushing losses. The next most shocked team is Oklahoma, … Continue reading

Posted in Measuring Madness, Upset Spotting | 4 Comments

Teams meeting upset victor and victim criteria

A few members have asked for me to post the teams that meet the upset victor/victim criteria listed in the “2014 Upsets” feature article. Here’s the information. Bear in mind that some of these Cinderella opportunities never come to pass … Continue reading

Posted in Upset Spotting | 49 Comments

So you want to win that billion-dollar bracket…

As I’ve been crunching the team numbers in anticipation of the bracket announcement (nine teams to go!), that Quicken Loans billion-dollar bracket has been rattling around in my brain. Part of the reason is that the digital marketing company helping … Continue reading

Posted in Basic Concepts, Tourney Trends, Upset Spotting | 22 Comments

Overview of upcoming “Contender|Pretender” Insider feature

I started in on my analysis for the “Contender|Pretender” feature piece that will appear in the Insider TIPS+ section some time over the next week. This article will separate the teams that beat seed-projected win totals from those that don’t. … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Tools, Upset Spotting | Leave a comment

Signs of Cinderella

I’ve been plowing through the 2014 Seed Guide for the last week, and that’s got me thinking about the makeup of Cinderellas. I’ve just completed some research on the 11 through 14 seeds in round one and discovered six factors … Continue reading

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Cinderella spotting using historical upset rules and KenPom efficiency

I’ve had several requests from members to identify the Cinderella teams according to the Upset rules from the article in the Tips+ section. I’ll do that first, then list the teams that come closest to the favored opponent according to … Continue reading

Posted in Upset Spotting | 30 Comments

52-team Quality Curve says: “There will be blood!”

For the last couple months, I’ve been promising that I’d do a full Quality Curve of the top 52 teams in the tourney (the presumptive 1-13 seeds) once the brackets were set. I finally got around to it this morning—and … Continue reading

Posted in Measuring Madness, Upset Spotting | 31 Comments

Top upset victors and victims in the modern tourney era

It’s five days away from Selection Sunday, and you know what that means: it’s nine days away from Bracket-busting, Soul-crushing Thursday. Face it: somebody you penciled in for a deep tourney run will likely lose on the first or second … Continue reading

Posted in Upset Spotting | 7 Comments

Anatomy of an Upset

Over the last week, I’ve added two new features for Insiders. You can find them under the “TIPS+” section. The first was about key performance indicators for seed classes, and the most recent is about how to spot the most … Continue reading

Posted in Upset Spotting | 6 Comments

The top 15 upsets of the 64-team era (5 to 1)

In our countdown of the top 15 tourney upsets, we’re down to the final five. I based these rankings on four factors: the unlikelihood of the upset, the character of the Cinderella, the quality of the opponent and the specific … Continue reading

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