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Peter Tiernan has been using stats to analyze March Madness for 22 years. He writes for CBSSports.com and has also contributed to ESPN.com and SI.com. His insights into the NCAA basketball tournament can help you build a better bracket.Sign-up questions? Click here.
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Category Archives: Upset Spotting
Cinderella spotting using historical upset rules and KenPom efficiency
I’ve had several requests from members to identify the Cinderella teams according to the Upset rules from the article in the Tips+ section. I’ll do that first, then list the teams that come closest to the favored opponent according to … Continue reading
Posted in Upset Spotting
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52-team Quality Curve says: “There will be blood!”
For the last couple months, I’ve been promising that I’d do a full Quality Curve of the top 52 teams in the tourney (the presumptive 1-13 seeds) once the brackets were set. I finally got around to it this morning—and … Continue reading
Posted in Measuring Madness, Upset Spotting
31 Comments
Top upset victors and victims in the modern tourney era
It’s five days away from Selection Sunday, and you know what that means: it’s nine days away from Bracket-busting, Soul-crushing Thursday. Face it: somebody you penciled in for a deep tourney run will likely lose on the first or second … Continue reading
Posted in Upset Spotting
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Anatomy of an Upset
Over the last week, I’ve added two new features for Insiders. You can find them under the “TIPS+” section. The first was about key performance indicators for seed classes, and the most recent is about how to spot the most … Continue reading
Posted in Upset Spotting
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The top 15 upsets of the 64-team era (5 to 1)
In our countdown of the top 15 tourney upsets, we’re down to the final five. I based these rankings on four factors: the unlikelihood of the upset, the character of the Cinderella, the quality of the opponent and the specific … Continue reading
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The top 15 upsets of the 64-team era (10 to 6)
In my last post, I started counting down the top 15 upsets of the 64-team era, which began in 1985, 28 tourneys ago. Since then, a team seeded four or more positions lower than its opponent has downed the favorite … Continue reading
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Counting down the top 15 upsets of the 64-team era (11 to 15)
The last three tournaments have been the most upset-laden in 27 years. In 2010, we saw a ninth-seeded Northern Iowa squad knock off top seed Kansas. The next year, 11 seed VCU shocked the Jayhawks. And last year, on the … Continue reading