Category Archives: Measuring Madness

A decade of Duke woes…

With its startling loss to Mercer, Duke has now fallen short of seed-projected win totals in eight of 10 tourneys. And they’ve added to their record as upset victims, with 11 crushing losses. The next most shocked team is Oklahoma, … Continue reading

Posted in Measuring Madness, Upset Spotting | 4 Comments

2014 wrap-up: maddest dance, most upsets in 30 years

UConn’s victory over Kentucky on Monday made official what we already knew: this year’s tourney broke 30-year records for the highest level of unpredictability and most upsets. Before this year, the record Madometer reading was 20.8% deviation from perfect high-seed … Continue reading

Posted in General News, Measuring Madness | 59 Comments

Cranking up the Madometer to measure the 2014 tourney madness

Veteran members are no doubt familiar with the graphic below, but unless newcomers have dug deep into the blog, they won’t recognize the Madometer gauge at the top of the blog. The Madometer is a simple metric I devised to … Continue reading

Posted in Measuring Madness | 3 Comments

Which region is most likely to blow up?

Yesterday, I attempted to identify which past dance the 2014 tourney most resembled. Based on the seed quality curves, it looked like 2006 and 2011 were the closest comparisons. Both of those dances were particularly mad. 2006 featured the George … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Tools, Measuring Madness, Tourney Trends | 16 Comments

Which past tourney does 2014 most resemble?

Late last night, well into my second glass of wine, my wife gave me a bracket science challenge. When Michelle asks a question about tourney analytics, I listen—not just because she makes me a big pump pot of coffee every … Continue reading

Posted in Bracket Tools, Measuring Madness, Tourney Trends | 21 Comments

Mis-seedings may foretell tourney madness better than KenPom curve

Armed with the last 11 years of Selection Sunday data based on KenPom’s new mismatch-free formula, I’ve been doing some analysis into what I call the “quality curve” of the 52 teams. The more I look at the numbers, the … Continue reading

Posted in Measuring Madness | 14 Comments

2014 top teams aren’t just weak; they’re weak together

I was intrigued by one of Ken Pomeroy’s recent blogposts at KenPom.com. You can read the whole thing here, but this is the part that caught my attention: Every year, someone will talk about how much parity there is college … Continue reading

Posted in Measuring Madness, Tourney Trends | 8 Comments

Quality curve confirms the weakness of this year’s top teams

The last time I compared the Pythagorean values of the top 20 teams (heretofore the “KenPom Top 20”) to their historical counterparts, we saw that this year’s “elite” were markedly worse than any top 20 in the last decade. This … Continue reading

Posted in Measuring Madness | 1 Comment

Numbers say the 2014 tourney will get crazy

Measuring tourney predictability by deviation from high-seed dominance Last year’s dance was the maddest tournament of the 64-team era. It capped the craziest four-year stretch in 29 years. How can I tell that? Because I devised a simple statistic to … Continue reading

Posted in Measuring Madness | 1 Comment

Ten teams have champ cred…but how good are they?

Last week, only four teams met all the criteria that the last 13 tournament champions possessed, and another four schools just missed due to soft schedules. This week, eight teams have all the characteristics of tourney winners and two are … Continue reading

Posted in Champ Credentials, Measuring Madness | 6 Comments