Category Archives: Basic Concepts

So you want to win that billion-dollar bracket…

As I’ve been crunching the team numbers in anticipation of the bracket announcement (nine teams to go!), that Quicken Loans billion-dollar bracket has been rattling around in my brain. Part of the reason is that the digital marketing company helping … Continue reading

Posted in Basic Concepts, Tourney Trends, Upset Spotting | 22 Comments

The Basics of Bracket Science: Baseline Pool Performance and “PASE”

Whenever I tell people about my work with statistics and the NCAA tournament, I get one of two reactions. Those who have little interest in college ball give me a patronizing smile and tell me some story about how their … Continue reading

Posted in Basic Concepts | 5 Comments

Seed advancement rate chart: a basic tool for bracket success

I am deep in the midst of writing the 2014 Seed Guide. This is the massive study of every seed match-up that has ever occurred over the 29 years of the 64-team era. If there were only one resource you … Continue reading

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2013 wins per appearance by seed

This is a public service announcement. I got an comment from member Will asking for the complete rundown on the average number of wins per appearance for each seed. You can always use the Bracketmaster to calculate this by isolating … Continue reading

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What all those columns in the stats sheet mean

I’ve fielded enough emails asking for a guide to the columns in the stats sheet, that I figured I ought to get after that. A couple years back, I made an effort to put a little triangle note beside each … Continue reading

Posted in Basic Concepts, General News | 3 Comments

Do teams with better road records overachieve in the tourney?

Three members have asked me in the last couple weeks about whether having a good road/neutral record has an impact on tourney performance. I finally got some time tonight to do a quick PASE analysis on the subject. I’m glad … Continue reading

Posted in Basic Concepts, Tourney Trends | 12 Comments

Analysis of key performance indicators coming for Insiders

If it seems like the Bracket Science blog has gone a little quiet lately, it’s because I’ve spent the last week crunching serious numbers to find the factors that correlate most to tourney overachievement.  This involved nearly a thousand queries … Continue reading

Posted in Basic Concepts, Bracket Tools | 2 Comments

What is baseline bracket prediction performance?

I’m here to tell you right now that nobody has a failsafe system for predicting the NCAA basketball tourney. As Nate Silver might say, filling out your bracket is an exercise in assessing probabilities. You’re not going to build a … Continue reading

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Possession-based data say Pitt’s a champ, but Louisville isn’t

Ken Pomeroy has been publishing tempo-free statistics for nine years now and basketball analysts are relying more and more on them to gain insights into the college game. If you follow this blog , you know that KenPom stats are … Continue reading

Posted in Basic Concepts, Champ Credentials | 8 Comments

Why automatically advancing top four seeds makes sense

When it comes time to fill out your bracket, you’ll have 63 match-ups to decide. I’m here to set your mind at ease: you probably shouldn’t even think twice about 16 of them. The stats say that picking any first-round … Continue reading

Posted in Basic Concepts, Bracket Tools | 5 Comments