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Peter Tiernan has been using stats to analyze March Madness for 22 years. He writes for CBSSports.com and has also contributed to ESPN.com and SI.com. His insights into the NCAA basketball tournament can help you build a better bracket.Sign-up questions? Click here.
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Author Archives: ptiernan
2013 Madometer settles to 21.2% after Louisville escapes Shockers
We nearly saw the ultimate Shocker last night, with Wichita State up 12 late into the second half. But Louisville pulled out their semi-final game…then Michigan sweated out a victory over Syracuse. That sets up a 1v4 title game. There … Continue reading
Posted in Measuring Madness
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Model performance heading into the Final Four
I meant to post this earlier. Here are the results of the various strategies used to fill out the brackets for the 2013 tourney. The numbers refer to where the models fall by percentile in the ESPN Tourney Challenge. Each … Continue reading
Posted in General News
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2013 Madometer rises to 21.8% madness
After the Wolverines’ trouncing of Florida and tourney favorite Louisville’s beatdown of Duke, the Madometer ticked up to 21.8% deviation from higher seed dominance. Even if Louisville wins the championship, this reading can go no lower than 20.8%. That makes … Continue reading
Posted in Measuring Madness
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It’s official: Craziest…dance…EVER!
Wichita State’s upset of Ohio State has cemented the 2013 tourney as the maddest dance in the 64-team tourney era, dating back to 1985. Heading into today’s last two Elite Eight games, the Madometer deviates from perfect high seed dominance … Continue reading
Posted in Measuring Madness
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Model performance heading into Elite Eight
If you take a quick scan of the percentiles below, it looks like the stats models are performing pretty well this year. But the Elite Eight results will start to create separation among the 15 models. The biggest bracket killer … Continue reading
Posted in General News
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We’re at the Elite Eight…and it’s still the craziest tourney ever!
The Madometer settled down a bit after the Sweet Sixteen, but at 21.6% madness, the 2013 tourney is still on pace to be the craziest dance of the 64-team era. Only the Midwest region, with #1 Louisville versus #2 Duke, … Continue reading
Posted in Measuring Madness
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After the round of 32, the Madometer reads record 23.4% insanity
It’s official: the tourney has gone absolutely Coastal! After three upsets in the round of 32, punctuated with the FGCU surprise over San Diego State, we’re now up to 10 shockers. That’s just three away from the record of 13. … Continue reading
Posted in General News, Measuring Madness
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Mountain Worst…and coaching performance musings
Leading up to the 2013 tourney, I kept saying in all my interviews that the Mountain West teams would have to prove it to me before I went with them too deep in my bracket. After all, if you look … Continue reading
Posted in Coach Ratings, General News
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Model performance: nothing spectacular, but most still in running
Heading into the second day of the round of 32, most of the bracket models posted under the Tips+ section still have a fighting chance of success. All but two of the models are above the 60th percentile–and even Final … Continue reading
Posted in General News
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